The Detroit Lions’ season has been defined by inconsistency. Unable to sustain momentum from week to week, Detroit has alternated wins and losses throughout the year and entered Week 16 with an 8–6 record. While that mark would be good enough to lead the AFC North, it leaves the Lions sitting third in the NFC North behind the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
Detroit’s postseason outlook took another hit after the Bears defeated the Packers on Saturday, shrinking the Lions’ margin for error. Moreover, the Lions’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers today didn’t help their case. Let’s break down Detroit’s playoff odds and the scenarios that could keep their postseason hopes alive after Week 16.
What Are the Lions’ Playoff Odds?
The NFC North has emerged as one of the league’s most competitive divisions this season. The Bears currently sit atop the standings at 11–4 after a fourth-quarter comeback win over the Packers and now hold an 89% chance of winning the division, with a playoff berth essentially locked up.
Meanwhile, the Packers sit at 9–5–1 and face a relatively easier remaining schedule, with games against the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings. Even so, Green Bay is still likely to reach at least 10 wins, if not 11, which would place Detroit in an increasingly precarious position.
After Week 16, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, the Lions can no longer win the division. They now only have an 5% chance of making the playoffs and will need a miracle to play in the postseason this year.
Offensive penalty on the Lions with no time left on the clock so that means the game is over pic.twitter.com/rPnmqDwlzk
— Rate the Refs (@Rate_the_Refs) December 22, 2025
Notably, the only way Detroit could have been eliminated this week from the playoffs before playing was if the Bears–Packers matchup ended in a tie and the Lions lost.
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The key issue for the Lions is that they no longer control their own destiny. Even if Detroit wins out, a tall task with a remaining game against Chicago, they still need outside help. That help would have to come in one of the following forms:
- At least one Packers loss (against Baltimore or Minnesota), or
- A Bears loss to the San Francisco 49ers next week
If the Lions finish 10–7 by going 2–0 over their final two games, their playoff chances would still be slim. A loss to Chicago would effectively eliminate Detroit unless the Packers lose their final two games and finish 9–7–1.
It’s a bleak outlook for a team that entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. But as long as Detroit remains mathematically alive, the Lions can’t afford to give up hope.
