What more could you ask for than a nice Saturday night game heading into a packed Sunday slate? How does a statistically sound same game parlay pick for the Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys game sound?
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
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- Spread
Cowboys -6 - Moneyline
Lions +210, Cowboys -258 - Total
53.5 -
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Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Lions vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay
Trivia Question: Which total is higher — the number of Lion wins right now or the number of divisional titles the Cowboys have won since the last time Detroit was the king of the NFC North?
Some games are a slow burn that requires fantasy football managers to be patient before the points begin to pile up, while others set the tone for a high-scoring affair right off the bat.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
I expect this to be the latter.
This game features two of the top four first-quarter scoring teams in the NFL this season, and I’m not willing to write that off as some goofy trend like I would any other quarter. The first quarter is a snapshot of the work done in practice for the week prior, the ability to scheme up and execute a plan based on the scouted weaknesses of your opponent.
We are talking about a pair of teams that boast an above-average TD rate when inside the red zone this season and a below-average TD prevention rate when their opponent gets inside the 20-yard line.
For the sake of this prop, I’m banking on successful drives, and those trends point to such drives having a good shot at ending in six points, not three.
As for how these teams move the ball, two specific players jump out as round pegs into round matchup holes.
The Lions rank third in both pressure rate and (highest) opponent aDOT. They can make the opposing QB sweat, and he typically responds by trying them downfield, many times in single coverage spots. Brandin Cooks’ aDOT is 24.1% greater than that of CeeDee Lamb this season, making him a potential target on such plays. His skill set, along with the projected total of this game, makes his yardage prop a touch low.
Cooks receiving yardage, Dallas’ past game with 43+ points scored:
- 37 yards (vs. Eagles)
- 45 yards (vs. Seahawks)
- 72 yards (vs. Commanders)
- 42 yards (at Panthers)
- 173 yards (vs. Giants)
In those games, he has hauled in 78.6% of his targets and averaged 16.8 yards per catch. His listed total is low enough that we can get there on a single play, a tempting thought against a defense trending in the right direction in a weatherproof setting.
When Detroit has the ball, their star rookie running back is the story. For the season, Jahmyr Gibbs owns a 15.1% target share and a 76.1% catch rate. While he has been plenty impressive on the ground, his separation is in the passing game, and that is where I’m attacking.
The Cowboys blitz at the ninth-highest rate this season and have missed the fewest tackles in the league. Translation?
“Dink-and-dump all you want — we are going to get our fair share of sacks, and when we don’t, we trust our team to make tackles in space.”
That’s why I’m betting on Gibbs’ catch total and not taking the bait with the yardage. His involvement seems safe, so even if the ‘Boys bottle him up, we have a good chance of getting home on his portion of this same game parlay!
- Trivia Answer: The Lions have 11 wins through 16 weeks this season, giving them the slight edge over the 10 divisional titles that the Cowboys have since 1993.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions, Brandin Cooks over 35.5 receiving yards, First quarter over 9.5 points
- Odds: +449 (at FanDuel)
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