Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is looking to shake off the visible rust from last season and return to being the elite QB1 he was in Houston. Should fantasy football managers draft Watson at his ADP this season?
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Deshaun Watson’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Writing an outlook on pretty much every fantasy-relevant player in the NFL forces me to try and reach conclusions on even the most challenging of players. Watson is one of those players.
Along with guys like D’Andre Swift and Calvin Ridley, Watson is one of those guys that can truly swing fantasy leagues.
Last season, Watson returned to football for the final six games after missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Unsurprisingly, he was a bit rusty. Watson threw just seven touchdowns and averaged a mere 15.1 fantasy points per game.
Watson’s absence, combined with his poor performance last season, has fantasy managers justifiably cautious about going all-in on a 2023 rebound. But are we forgetting how utterly dominant Watson was on the Texans?
From the moment he set foot on an NFL field, Watson was an elite QB1. He averaged 24.7 ppg as a rookie before tearing his ACL. He came back the next season and posted his worst season as a Texan…which amounted to 21.3 ppg and a QB5 finish. Watson then finished as the QB2 and QB5 in 2019 and 2020.
In his last full season, Watson led the NFL in passing yards. He was first in yards per attempt, second in air yards per attempt, and fifth in deep ball completion percentage, just to highlight a few of his accolades. And I haven’t even touched on his rushing prowess.
Over his career, Watson averages 30.0 rushing yards per game. He’s scored 18 times on the ground in 60 games.
Had Watson never engaged in his off-the-field malfeasance, we are likely talking about him being drafted in the same breath as the “Big Three” QBs.
This year, Watson will have had a full offseason to focus solely on football. Although he doesn’t have DeAndre Hopkins anymore, he does have Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. Watson also has the benefit of the best pure runner in the NFL, Nick Chubb, at his disposal.
If Watson’s struggles last year were purely due to rust, he will be the best value at the QB position in 2023 fantasy drafts.
Is Watson a Good Fantasy Pick?
The above paints an extremely rosy picture of Watson’s 2023. There is, of course, downside.
Watson missed 1.5 years of football. He did not look good last season. What if he doesn’t return to form?
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With a QB10 ADP, No. 86 overall, fantasy managers are wisely hedging their bets.
I don’t foresee any realistic scenario where Watson returns par value. He’s simply not going to be a low QB1. Watson will either regain his prior form and flirt with a top-five finish, or he just isn’t that guy anymore (and he finishes outside the top 12).
There is very real risk with drafting Watson as your QB1. But no QB outside the top eight has a clearer path to an elite season. Which is exactly why Watson is ranked as my QB9, and is also the QB9 in our PFN consensus rankings.
You don’t win fantasy football championships by having an above-average team. You need to hit a 90th percentile outcome. How do you do that? By drafting guys that significantly outperform their ADP.
Watson has the potential to do that in spades. As a result, I am more than willing to roll the dice on Watson if I don’t take one of the QBs that typically go in the first five to six rounds. It might be wise to pair Watson with a safety net QB like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, or Jared Goff. But don’t be afraid to swing for the fences here.
