Earlier today, NFL.com’s Ian Rapport reported San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel will undergo surgery after fracturing his foot during a throw session in Nashville, Tennessee. The injury not only hurts the 49ers offense but Deebo Samuel’s dynasty stock as well.
Earlier, there was concern that Samuel could start the season on the PUP list and miss at least six weeks as a worst-case scenario. However, his surgery seems to have gone perfect, and the 49ers wideout seems to be in good spirits following the procedure. Given that knowledge, what should we do with the 2nd year rookie wide receiver after this injury? Let’s take a look.
Deebo Samuel’s Dynasty Stock
2019 Summary
Samuel had a slow start to the season with just two games with 12 PPR points or more in the first seven weeks. He came on starting in Week 8, posting at least 13 PPR points in all but one game through Week 16. By the end of the season, he led all 49ers wide receivers with an 18% target share. The arrow was pointing nowhere but up for the breakout rookie wide receiver,
2020 Outlook
Dynasty
Thankfully, this injury happened in the middle of June. The Athletic’s David Lombardi tweeted this earlier regarding the time table for Samuel’s return.
Deebo Samuel says on IG that he’ll be back before the 49ers’ season starts. That corresponds with the no-complications timeline for a Jones fracture surgery that I tweeted. It’ll likely take some time to know if today’s surgery was a success pic.twitter.com/p9BMqg6GfC
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) June 18, 2020
As Lombardi says, it will take some time to know if the surgery was a success. Samuel, however, seemed to be in excellent spirits and extremely optimistic regarding his status for 2020.
10 weeks I’m back better than the deebo you seen before 🙏🏾
— UnoCaptain‼️❌ (@19problemz) June 18, 2020
With no complications, Deebo Samuel’s dynasty stock will be unaffected. You might be able to get Samuel at a discount from a panicked owner. I would send an offer immediately and see what the owner values him at. PFN has Samuel as the 58th player overall in Dynasty Super Flex (WR25), while he’s the 48th player overall (WR25) in 1QB Dynasty leagues.
If you are the Samuel owner and feel skeptical, you won’t get full value from Samuel at this time. Even if you are worried this injury could cost him half of his 2020 season, I think the best move is to stand pat. Wait it out and hope he is on the field for Week 1, because you aren’t getting full price in a trade if there were indeed complications from the surgery.
Redraft
While Deebo Samuel’s Dynasty stock took a hit today, I think in redraft formats, we can take advantage of the ADP discount. I understand if you’re cautious considering the injury, but I think the surgery went as well as Samuel is acting as it did, and we see him play most, if not all, of the 2020 season.
According to Fantasy Pro’s ADP, Samuel is the WR28 in Best Ball formats, 66th player overall. His FFPC ADP is right in line with that mark as well (71.7)
If we see him begin to dip, I recommend taking advantage of the discount. Samuel was the WR2 in PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM) with a grade of 38.63. Josh Hernsmeyer’s air yards website measures wide receiver efficiency as well with a metric called RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio). Samuel was the highest-graded receiver, with at least 80 targets, in RACR in 2019.
Verdict
These advanced metrics are why I still like buying Deebo Samuel’s dynasty stock. If the surgery is a success, this would be much ado about nothing. He is the number one wide receiver on his team with arguably the best play-caller in the game in Kyle Shanahan.
The injury happened early enough for a full recovery and time to get Samuel on the field for 2020. Send some inquiries and try to acquire him at a discount.
If you are less optimistic and are looking to trade him, just know you won’t be getting full value. It’s up to you to assess what your team needs at this time and make your own decision based on that. I think it’s time to buy at a discount. If you disagree, you’re selling Deebo Samuel’s dynasty stock below market value.
James Aguirre is a betting and fantasy analyst at the Pro Football Network (@PFN365). For all of our fantasy football and dynasty analysis, follow the fantasy group @PFNDynasty and James @James_AG1
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