Week 1 of the fantasy football season is underway, with the Kansas City Chiefs taking down the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 on opening night.
As we head into the weekend, I’ll answer some pressing start/sit questions while examining our consensus rankings.
Here, I’ll be checking out Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. of the San Francisco 49ers.
This is certainly a big topic of discussion, with Aiyuk only recently signing an extension with the team after an offseason filled with trade rumors.
Let’s dive in.
Should You Start Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say Aiyuk is the player to start. His projected 12.7 points in PPR leagues include a projection of four catches for 62 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Samuel (12.6 points).
My ranking for the two 49ers wide receivers aligns with the consensus, but I wouldn’t argue if you chose Samuel.
As mentioned, Aiyuk just signed his new deal, while Samuel has been with the team this entire offseason. That said, Aiyuk is a force when he’s on the field.
According to TruMedia, he caught 75 passes last season, and 61 of them went for first downs.
Aiyuk’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
Both Aiyuk and Samuel have some stiff matchups this week as they take on the New York Jets, whose starting corners are Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Gardner mostly stays on the left side while Aiyuk and Samuel routinely change things up.
In 2023, Reed and Gardner combined allowed 72 catches on 121 targets (59.5%) for 726 yards and three touchdowns.
The Jets’ defense allowed an average of 8.82 receptions on 14.88 targets for 100.65 yards and 0.29 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last season. In fact, there were only five touchdowns caught by wide receivers against the Jets all last season.
However, it’s Week 1, so I’ll be starting my studs, and that includes Aiyuk. He can make a lot happen with each catch.
Samuel’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
In 15 games last season, Samuel had 60 catches on 87 targets for 893 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged about 5.8 targets, four catches, and 59 yards per outing.
Of those 87 targets, Samuel saw 39 of them (44%) come just 0-9 yards downfield, so if the 49ers opt to use him there mostly in this game, I could see him racking up some catches and finishing with a nice performance in PPR leagues.
Still, Samuel’s targets per game in 2023 with this same cast on offense aren’t enough for me to trust him over Aiyuk. They’ll have similar matchups throughout the game, switching sides against a tough Jets defense.
I expect running back Christian McCaffrey to produce a lot in this game. The Jets’ secondary is not an easy unit to solve, and I anticipate they’ll frustrate this 49ers receiving corps, including Aiyuk.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Samuel and Aiyuk in Week 1
Brandon Aiyuk: It was a far from quiet offseason for Aiyuk, but as long as he suits up for this game, I see no reason why he can’t be considered a top-20 play despite the matchup.
There is no denying that Aiyuk has a better connection with Purdy than Deebo Samuel Sr., something we saw by way of the big play — he had 28 deep receptions, a number topped by the one and only Tyreek Hill in 2023. In theory, this is a tough matchup. We know the Jets are loaded, and the potential for Rodgers to play at a snail’s pace certainly doesn’t help.
That said, featured receivers were able to do enough for fantasy managers last season against Gang Green. Jaylen Waddle caught eight of nine targets when he faced the Jets with Hill inactive (Hill caught nine of 12 targets in the other Miami/New York contest), Stefon Diggs had a game where he hauled in 10 of 13 targets, and the CeeDee Lamb/A.J. Brown contingent combined to grab 18 of 22 looks in their respective games against the Jets.
Would I have preferred a “normal” offseason? Of course, but I’m not punishing myself by benching Aiyuk to see if any of the noise impacts him. I’ll take my chances and, in the final game of the week, he could swing your matchup with a big night.
Deebo Samuel Sr.: Samuel’s profile as a whole worries me from a volume perspective. We’ve seen him do a lot without massive usage numbers, making him an outlier but also a weekly risk.
The Jets allowed the sixth-most YAC to receivers last season (15.9% above league average), and that’s enough for him to slip inside my top 25 at the position; but if you’re buying my Aiyuk case, starting Samuel may not be as much of a lock as you think.
Once. Once last season did multiple receivers crack double figures in terms of PPR points against the Jets (Hill and Waddle did it in Week 12). That was part of an offense that led the league in passing — Purdy can be as efficient as he wants, but he’s not getting any of my money on a “to lead the NFL in passing yards” bet.
Samuel is my WR24, ranking just ahead of WR1s in iffy offenses (George Pickens and Terry McLaurin) but just behind other WR2s in better situations (Waddle and Cooper Kupp).