San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel offers fantasy football managers the highest highs but also the lowest lows. Is his weekly unpredictability a good thing in Best Ball, though? How should fantasy managers value Samuel this season?
Deebo Samuel’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
It’s always a challenge to evaluate a guy like Samuel. Clearly, he’s very good at football. One of the most dynamic players with the ball in his hands, Samuel has been top 15 in yards after the catch every year of his career. The 49ers’ offense is noticeably worse when Samuel is not on the field.
Through five years, Samuel has been a WR1 twice, a middling WR3 twice, and mostly injured once. But oftentimes, players can be viewed through rose-colored glasses.
Samuel’s 2021 season was truly incredible. He averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR3. He was arguably the most valuable player in fantasy football that season, given what he cost in fantasy drafts.
It was that 2021 season that put Samuel on the map as a truly elite player. He caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns while adding 365 rushing yards and eight rushing scores.
The problem with evaluating Samuel is the difficulty of repeating his 2021 season. As a result, he was certain to underwhelm in 2022, but a decrease of 8.2. fantasy points per game was more than anyone expected.
With his previous two seasons being vastly different, Samuel was a polarizing player ahead of 2023. Which one was the real Samuel? As it often is, the answer was somewhere in the middle … which is exactly where Samuel finished last season.
Samuel averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR12. He was a better Best Ball pick than managed league pick due to the multiple games in which he either got hurt, was a decoy, or just disappeared.
At the same time, Samuel’s ceiling is massive. He gave fantasy managers six games of 20+ fantasy points, including a ridiculous stretch from Weeks 12-15 when he scored 22.4, 35.8, 34.0, and 21.9 fantasy points, respectively. Samuel also had six games with 11.5 points or less, including four in single digits.
Similar to 2021, rushing played a big role in Samuel’s productivity — more specifically, rushing touchdowns. Samuel scored five times on the ground. We can’t really project that to happen again.
As a receiver, though, Samuel only saw a 22.5% target share. That was 5.3% lower than his 2021 season. Even if the rushing production slows, there’s room for an increase in target volume. But Samuel will need to continue being elite after the catch to produce given his low aDOT (average depth of target), which was only 6.6 last season.
Should You Draft Samuel in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Once again, Samuel is facing stiff competition for targets. He will be competing with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
Samuel will do so on an offense that had the 11th-highest neutral game script run rate let season, as well as — by far — the slowest pace of play. The 49ers averaged 31.1 seconds per snap in neutral game script, 1.2 seconds more than the second-slowest team.
With that said, we’ve already established that Samuel isn’t like other players. He doesn’t need significant volume to produce. As a result, it’s difficult to evaluate him based on traditional analysis.
There’s also the matter of his injuries. I’m not one to believe we can predict injury. Every year, we see players deemed “injury-prone” stay healthy and guys who never get hurt miss several games. Injuries are mostly random — emphasis on “mostly.” I do not think Samuel’s injury issues are entirely unpredictable.
Samuel plays a bit recklessly, and it leads to unnecessary injuries. It’s a near certainty he’s going to leave a couple of games early each season. Fortunately, in Best Ball, those games will be covered by the nature of the format.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Rankings 2024
I am far more apt to draft Samuel in Best Ball leagues than managed leagues. Just as we know he will leave a couple of games early, we also know he will have some massive weeks. With Samuel, you take the good with the bad. Fantasy managers shouldn’t shy away from the electric receiver in Best Ball.
