There’s no question that DeAndre Hopkins has had an outstanding NFL career, which has helped elevate many fantasy football managers to league championships throughout his first 11 years in the league.
Yet, after failing to finish as a top-20 fantasy WR for the last three seasons and playing with a young quarterback with the Tennessee Titans this upcoming season, are Hopkins’ most productive days behind him?
Should You Select DeAndre Hopkins at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 92nd Overall (WR39)
- Decline in Fantasy Production: Hopkins hasn’t finished as a top-20 fantasy WR since 2020, with his last three seasons producing finishes of WR22 (2023), WR47 (2022), and WR45 (2021). Injuries and a suspension played a role in this decline, but his overall production has dropped significantly.
- Flashes of Brilliance: Despite the decline, Hopkins showed glimpses of his elite ability in 2023, with three 100-yard games, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 8 against the Falcons. However, these moments were inconsistent, reflecting his overall WR22 finish.
- Target Share and Competition: Hopkins maintained an elite 28.6% target share last season, but the addition of Calvin Ridley to the Titans’ offense could eat into that share. This, combined with the uncertainty of Will Levis at quarterback, raises concerns about Hopkins’ ability to maintain top-tier production.
- Air Yards and Deep Targets: Hopkins ranked second in both air yards (1,905) and deep targets (35) among WRs last year, suggesting he still has the potential for big plays. However, his 13.2 fantasy points per game (29th among WRs) reflects a drop in efficiency that could continue if the Titans’ passing game doesn’t improve.
- Injury Concerns: A knee injury in training camp is expected to sideline Hopkins for several weeks, which could impact his readiness for the start of the season. This adds another layer of risk to his fantasy outlook for 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Hopkins’ ADP of WR39 in the eighth round makes him a potential value pick, especially if his knee injury does not linger into the regular season. In this range, he’s being drafted alongside rookie WRs like Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison, and Ladd McConkey, making him a safer, veteran option with a proven track record.
- Final Verdict: Hopkins can still be a productive WR3 or Flex option in PPR formats, especially at his current ADP. While his situation in Tennessee isn’t ideal, his experience and ability to command targets give him a solid floor. If Levis can perform better than expected, Hopkins could exceed his draft-day value, making him a smart pick in the eighth round.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for DeAndre Hopkins
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Hopkins is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The fantasy dominance we saw from Hopkins during his days with the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals feels like a distant memory at this point, given that he hasn’t produced a top-20 fantasy season since 2020.
Hopkins’ Fantasy Production Since 2021
- 2023: 75 receptions for 1,057 yards and seven TDs (WR22)
- 2022: 64 receptions for 717 yards and three TDs (WR47)
- 2021: 42 receptions for 572 yards and eight TDs (WR45)
Do some of these fantasy seasons require some context? Sure, Hopkins was serving a suspension — which cost him eight games of the 2022 campaign — and injuries played a factor in his 2021 production. Yet, his fantasy production did drop considerably on a per-game basis in his first year with the Titans.
Still, Hopkins flashed some of his ability to produce top-tier fantasy performances at moments over the 2023 campaign with three 100-yard performances, including Week 8, when he scored three touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons.
Hopkins just turned 32 years old, which certainly isn’t working in his favor. Neither did this offseason’s addition of Calvin Ridley. Ridley may best be suited as a great complementary option to work opposite of Hopkins, but it shouldn’t help the latter’s elite 28.6% target share increase from 2023.
On the surface, Hopkins produced his sixth 1,000-yard receiving season in a Titans’ passing game that was substandard last year. It’s uncertain to get any better with Will Levis heading into his second season.
Yet, Hopkins’ 1,905 air yards and 35 deep-passing targets both ranked second in the league at the WR position last season, suggesting there could be some jump in production if Levis develops adequately.
Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee that will be the case. This means Hopkins’ drop in efficiency last year could continue to plague his fantasy value. His 13.2 fantasy points per game ranked 29th among receivers, which isn’t terrible but doesn’t exactly project a return to WR1 status with Ridley joining the offense.
Another thing working against Hopkins is a knee injury he picked up early in training camp, which is expecting to keep the veteran wideout sidelined for several weeks.
Ultimately, Hopkins showed enough playmaking ability last year to suggest he could still be a great fantasy producer in the right situation. I just can’t confidently say his situation in Tennessee qualifies, limiting him to the WR3 conversation for this upcoming year.
Is Hopkins a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Hopkins’ ADP currently rests at No. 92 overall as the WR39 off the board. This puts him in the same range as players like Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison, and Ladd McConkey in the eighth round.
The debate for the three rookie receivers can be made both for and against Hopkins, but the WR39 price point makes him a great draft-day price at this cost. There’s no reason he can’t be a productive WR3 or Flex option for your team in full-PPR formats in 2024 — assuming his injured knee does not linger into the start of the season.
We saw a nice floor in a terrible passing game last year for Hopkins. If Levis is better than expected, then this price point will prove to be an excellent value for a proven veteran option.