Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery missed three games last season, but that didn’t stop him from rushing for 13 scores (five more than his previous career high). His fantasy football evaluation, however, is a bit complicated with Jahmyr Gibbs clearly the future of the position in town.
The industry is betting against a repeat performance from the veteran and letting him slide to (or past) the seventh round. Can he really be a league-altering pick in consecutive seasons or has the industry evaluated this situation correctly?
David Montgomery’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 238 (200 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1,084
- Rushing TDs: 10
- Receptions: 38
- Receiving Yards: 296
- Receiving TDs: 1
David Montgomery Rushing TD (15)
pic.twitter.com/hiqDFl3NxS— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023)
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Montgomery This Year?
The catch with Montgomery is relatively straightforward: His role was simply to convert carries inside the five-yard line and handle the between-the-tackles work. When things are going right, this can be a profitable role for fantasy managers, but it resulted in career lows across the board in terms of receiving (16 catches on 24 targets 117 yards).
He was able to overcome that flaw last season, but touchdown count isn’t the stickiest of stats — and as Gibbs’ role expands, Montgomery’s stock can only move in one direction.
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If the touchdowns project to decline, Montgomery’s path to mattering every week in our game would require him to match his involvement rate from 2023. On the surface, his 15.6 carries per game may not seem unattainable, but those season-long numbers are a bit deceptive.
- First four games last season: 22 carries per game
- After that: 13.1 carries per game
He’s currently being drafted in the same tier as D’Andre Swift, Zamir White, and James Conner. I believe he is just as talented as those RBs, but the situations aren’t comparable, and I’d rather bank on raw touch count at this point in the draft.
If you want to take Montgomery ahead of backs with less-than-bellcow roles — options like Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Warren, or either Cincinnati Bengals RB — be my guest. That’s the right spot to swallow some risk with the scoring potential that Montgomery offers.
We aren’t looking at a league winner or even a weekly starter in PPR leagues in my eyes. That said, he holds a very important role for successful fantasy teams. He’s the perfect “I need a one-week fill-in for my injured Flex” player. The scoring equity that he carries allows him to produce top-25 numbers at the position in any given week; in a spot like this, you’re not overly concerned about the stat line if a touchdown doesn’t occur.
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If you’re drafting Montgomery as a starter, you open yourself up to falling short of expectations (his last touch of 25+ yards came in mid-November, and he had seven games with zero or fewer receiving yards).
Drafting Detroit’s short-yardage back in the early sixth round isn’t something I’m interested in. The onesie positions have my attention at that point in the draft, not to mention receivers that I believe have significantly more upside.
My most common roster construction sees me drafting a pair of running backs before Montgomery comes off the board and a few fliers late. That has him outside of my plan in most situations, and I’m OK with that. I’m more likely to reach a few spots to get Gibbs and bank on his development than I am to select Montgomery at cost and hope that he can clone his success from 2023.
