Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. On paper, we should always be excited about Adams’ fantasy football outlook, but we unfortunately must pause and remind ourselves of the actual situation around this superstar.
Adams has sadly fallen into the Bermuda Triangle of bad quarterback play, and this year hasn’t shown any relief with Gardner Minshew taking over under center. Can Adams shine even without solid QB play? Let’s break down his fantasy outlook to help you navigate his average draft position (ADP) of No. 19 overall.
Davante Adams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Did you know that Adams received the second-most targets last year with 175? He created 103 receptions out of those targets, the 10th-best in the NFL. Adams also produced 1,144 yards (15th) and had eight touchdowns, ranking him eighth in the league.
Once again, at first glance, Adams looks like a must-draft player. However, we need to look deeper to see the true picture.
TruMedia shows us that Adams produced 11.1 yards per reception, which ranked him 63rd among qualifying wide receivers. It also shows us that he was the 40th-best receiver in air yards per target, producing only a 58.9% reception percentage total (111th).
Is Adams a Good Fantasy Pick?
Adams may have wowed the casual NFL fan, but his numbers prove that his fantasy outlook is a house of cards waiting to crumble.
He again gets a new quarterback, his fourth in his short stint with the Raiders. This change leads to questions about his ability to create chemistry with Minshew.
We also have another mouth to feed in Vegas with Brock Bowers, a talented player who can eat into Adams’ high target totals in 2024. With reports stating that Jakobi Meyers has had a strong camp, the Raiders’ pass catchers are trending around Adams and are ready to receive a more significant piece of the passing scheme pie.
Finally, we must remember that Antonio Pierce is a run-first, throw-later coach, which never bodes well for wide receivers.
Another thing the Raiders elevated under Pierce was their defense. In 2023, they finished as a top-10 defensive unit regarding DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). A run-first mentality and a strong defensive squad don’t help Adams.
If we were to move away from the draft strategy of good players on good offenses, we would like to see volume as we have in the past for Adams. However, a stronger defense means closer games, and therefore, we won’t see as many pass-happy yards in a garbage time script as we could normally hope for from good players on bad offenses.
Thankfully, his bye week does not affect us, as the Raiders enjoy a break in Week 10. Otherwise, Adams’ fantasy outlook should worry us.
We like Adams, the NFL player. His fantasy outlook is another story, as he is trending — like his age — in the wrong direction and should be a fade at his ADP.