Two fantasy football RBs with similar ADPs are Darrell Henderson and Raheem Mostert. The question is whether fantasy managers should draft them, and, if so, which one?
The case for Darrell Henderson over Raheem Mostert
The Los Angeles Rams and head coach Sean McVay have a two-year history of not being very kind to Darrell Henderson. Since drafting Henderson, the Rams pushed a washed Todd Gurley ahead of him, then did the same with plodding Malcolm Brown, drafted Cam Akers, and traded for Sony Michel. With all the evidence of the Rams not liking Henderson, why would I advocate for him over Raheem Mostert?
Henderson should still be the Rams’ lead back
There does not seem to be consensus in the fantasy community as to what the split between Henderson and Michel will look like. Following Akers’ injury, Henderson’s outlook and ADP soared into the late third/early fourth round. Following the Michel trade, Henderson’s ADP plummeted towards the sixth round, closer to Mostert.
My inclination is Henderson will remain the primary back, and most importantly, the receiving back. In 38 career games, Michel was targeted just 40 times. Although Henderson’s 30 targets in 28 career games aren’t much better, he was targeted at least twice in every game where he saw at least 15 carries.
Henderson is entering his third year with the Rams and operated as the lead back last season while Brown and Akers were hurt. On the other hand, Michel arrived only recently and will need some time to get up to speed. Expect this to be a 60-40 split in Henderson’s favor.
Why you should draft Darrell Henderson in 2021 fantasy leagues
At his post-trade ADP, Henderson was a risky proposition. He was never going to see the volume Akers was poised to see — he’s just not the same player. Henderson is not a three-down back. However, neither is Michel.
The reality is Michel was brought in because the Rams couldn’t enter the season with just Xavier Jones and Jake Funk behind Henderson. Michel is at least competent and will assume all of the work that would have otherwise gone to Jones or Funk (neither who would be viable fantasy football RBs).
Despite Henderson’s status as the incumbent, many fantasy managers are treating Michel as the primary back. This has depressed Henderson’s ADP multiple rounds lower than where it was right after Akers went down. Initially, Henderson was probably overvalued. Now, he’s undervalued, as I don’t see his role affected much by Michel. If you can get Henderson in the sixth round, that’s a bargain.
Raheem Mostert is talented but has health and competition concerns
When healthy, Mostert commanded a significant role in Kyle Shanahan’s notoriously effective zone-rushing scheme.
After closing out 2019 with a touchdown in his final six games, Mostert was trending upward entering the 2020 season. Unfortunately, 2020 Mostert was the story of an effective runner that couldn’t stay on the field. Mostert totaled just 521 rushing yards last season, missing eight games due to three separate injuries.
The 49ers brought in three new running backs this offseason
Mostert was clearly the lead back when healthy last season. However, playing ahead of Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson is to be expected. In 2021, the 49ers used a third-round pick on Trey Sermon, a sixth-round selection on Elijah Mitchell, and signed Wayne Gallman from the Giants. Wilson remains on the team, but he’ll be out at least half the season due to a knee injury.
If the preseason is any indication, Mostert remains the primary back, but Sermon will be involved. I favor Henderson over Mostert because I expect similar production, but Mostert could get hurt and lose his job to Sermon. If Henderson gets hurt, Michel would obviously benefit, but Henderson would likely return to his previous role. The same cannot be said about Mostert.
Both Raheem Mostert and Darrell Henderson are worth drafting at the right price
When comparing Mostert and Henderson, I prefer Henderson. Still, drafting Henderson does not preclude you from drafting Mostert. Both running backs are fantasy football RBs with serious upside if they see more work than expected. If either of them falls into the seventh round, I would have a tough time saying no.