The Dallas Cowboys might be America’s Team, but it felt like everyone who wasn’t an NFC North rival fan was rooting for the Detroit Lions heading into 2023. While an 8-3 record is certainly nothing to scoff at, things have not been pretty for Dan Campbell and the fighting-biting kneecaps.
The Lions defense certainly didn’t do the offense any favors against Green Bay, but mistakes on fourth down and Jared Goff’s regression back to his worst days with the Rams certainly didn’t help either. It also doesn’t paint a pretty picture of the Lions’ hopes of playoff success. What went wrong against the Packers, and what are the more macro concerns with this team?
Dan Campbell’s Aggression Bites Back
There was nothing wrong with Campbell going for it on 4th-and-4 from the Green Bay 35-yard-line. According to Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down model, going for it gave Detroit a win probability of 36% compared to 33% with a punt and 31% with a field goal attempt.
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The fake punt always looks like a genius move when executed to perfection and horrific when it gets stuffed for no gain. Down 23-6, it makes some sense to be aggressive, but four yards is not an insignificant length. And doing it from your own 23-yard line is essentially giving the opposition at least three points.
Their next fourth-down “go” situation came in the fourth quarter, down by 15 points. Detroit was on the Green Bay 31. Even though it was 4th-and-7, making a two-possession game a two-possession game in the fourth quarter feels like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The final fourth down that mattered was another 4th-and-7, this time from the Green Bay 12. Ben Johnson’s peculiar play call looked for a back-shoulder throw to Sam LaPorta around the front pylon, but the tight end slipped and couldn’t locate the pass.
Converting on even just one of these plays could have changed the flow of the game.
Jared Goff’s Mistakes
There’s no denying that Goff has played incredibly well for the Lions since the trade. But he has struggled in the past two games.
Goff threw three interceptions against the Chicago Bears, which is a defense that nobody has feared over the past two seasons. Then, against an underwhelming Packers defense, he fumbled the ball three times, losing all three in the process.
Quarterbacks make mistakes, and sometimes turnovers are not their fault, specifically. But far too many of Goff’s turnovers in the past two weeks have been inexcusable on his part.
But a lot of the issues stem around a talented offensive line that’s getting beat at a rate nobody is used to seeing since the Goff era began. That’s a big problem because for as talented as Goff is as a passer, his environment needs to be ideal around him.
The Packers consistently pressured him, and while he handled the pressure relatively well at times, he tried to write a few checks (make plays) that his bank account (lack of athleticism) couldn’t cash.
Goff also missed a few throws even when he was kept clean that we’re not used to seeing him miss. However, in the grand scheme of things, the offense should be fine. It was a short week, and they played sloppy football against a banged-up Packers defense.
Lions Defense Is a Problem
In Weeks 1-6, the Lions defense ranked seventh in EPA and 12th in success rate. Since the Baltimore Ravens clubbed them over the head in Week 7, those numbers have plummeted. They’re 31st in EPA and success rate.
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Things don’t get much better in the split between the run and pass, either. They’re 30th in dropback EPA and dead last in dropback success rate. They’re also 22nd in rushing EPA and 26th in rushing success rate.
The middle of the field has been a huge issue for their passing defense. They’ve allowed 10.7 yards per attempt to that area since Week 7, which is the second-worst mark in the league. QBs have had a 140.4 rating against them over that time. Their linebackers have been lost in coverage, and their safeties aren’t playing well at the moment.
The other significant issue they have is the lack of a complementary pass rush opposite of Aidan Hutchinson. He’s a talented player, but teams are able to focus on him and limit his good looks.
They have a cushion within the division, but this team does not look ready to compete with the NFC elites at a playoff level unless things change dramatically in the near future.
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