Dalvin Cook inked a one-year deal with the New York Jets in August, and the 28-year-old will fill out a backfield that includes the promising Breece Hall, who is coming off a torn ACL that prematurely ended his rookie season.
Cook has cleared 1,100 rushing yards in each of his past four seasons, reaching paydirt double-digit times in three of those, but projecting him to do either is a longshot in this committee. So what exactly should fantasy football managers expect from the former Viking?
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Dalvin Cook’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
I currently have both Cook and Hall projected as Flex options entering the 2023 season. As it stands right now, I’m assuming that Hall is active come Week 1 but with a short leash in terms of September work.
Projection: 153 carries for 685 yards and 4.5 TDs, 21 catches for 158 yards and 1.5 TDs
These numbers, in totality, are nearly identical to what I have penciled in for Hall — a few more rushing yards and fewer receiving yards.
To some degree, I’m sitting on the fence, but this is where rankings and projections differ. At the moment, a split over the course of the entire regular season seems most likely, but I prefer Cook in fantasy drafts.
Why?
The addition of Cook points to Hall’s recovery leaking into the regular season and the team slow playing getting him back anywhere near the usage that he had to open 2022. With that comes the ability for Cook to earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers and the potential for him to hold the 1A role in this offense for the remainder of the season.
There is no doubt in my mind that Rodgers played a part in the Cook signing, wanting his new franchise to go all-in on this season. If that is, in fact, the case, the Jets can ride Cook into the ground this season, understanding that they have time to play the long game with Hall at a position that we know has a limited shelf life.
Of note, running backs averaged 28 touches per game when Nathaniel Hackett and Rodgers were last paired.
Projections are meant to take into account all possible situations, so my tepid numbers take into account the potential for neither of these backs to average 15 touches during the second half of the season when both are full go.
Should You Draft Cook This Year?
Cook is the Jets running back that I am far more likely to land, but I’m not actively targeting either. The issue with drafting Cook is that his most valuable stretch is likely to come in September, a stretch on the schedule that features health throughout the league and no bye weeks.
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Cook’s first half of last season was better than the second half, something that I would expect this season. Remember that Rodgers is very much a “can I trust you” quarterback, and entering 2023, he will have had very few reps with either of these backs.
