Dalton Schultz took his talents to Houston this offseason, leaving a consistent Cowboys offense for a Texans unit that is beginning to rebuild. Over the past three seasons, Schultz has established himself as a viable threat in the passing game (4.1 catches per game). Now, he will be more of a featured target than the complementary role he has filled up to this point. What does that mean for Schultz’s fantasy football outlook in 2023?
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Dalton Schultz’s Fantasy Outlook
Schultz has been a top-10 performer at the position in consecutive seasons (points per game — minimum 10 games played). In order to make it three in a row, he’ll need to lead a young offense that figures to struggle with regularity.
After consecutive monster seasons at Ohio State, C.J. Stroud was the second overall pick in April and figures to be the Day 1 starter. Schultz is joined in this pass-catching nucleus by a yet-to-breakout Nico Collins, a 31-year-old Robert Woods (career lows in receiving yards and yards per catch last season with Tennessee), and 2022 second-round pick John Metchie III who sat out all of last season.
For 2023, the Texans’ win total sits at 6.5, making it reasonable to think this team is playing from behind and thus consistently airing the ball out.
Dameon Pierce will be the feature back after an encouraging rookie season, with Devin Singletary coming over from Buffalo to add depth at the position. Pierce showed promise as an option in the short passing game, a role that Schultz needs to dominate if he is going to return top-10 numbers.
How Impactful Will C.J. Stroud Be on Schultz’s Production?
More impactful than you might assume. It’s easy to say, “Tight ends are short-range targets, and rookie quarterbacks need a security blanket.” However, “easy” doesn’t mean right.
Over the past five seasons, 18.3% of rookie QB targets have gone to the TE position, a rate that is significantly short of what non-rookie signal-callers have produced over that stretch (21.2%).
That said, it took 8.6 half-PPR ppg last season to finish as a top-10 tight end. Over the past eight seasons, we’ve seen seven tight ends reach that number when playing with a rookie quarterback (minimum eight games played with the first-year QB).
This year, there are three rookie quarterbacks expected to start Week 1. And there is no denying that Schultz is the head of the class when it comes to the tight ends in those offenses.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Dalton Schultz at His ADP?
In the 10th round, Schultz doesn’t require much draft capital to acquire. And yet, I’m still not tempted.
Nothing in Schultz’s profile hints at much upside (career-high drop rate last season, below average after the catch for his career, and a team that won’t score much), and upside is really all I care about if I’m waiting to address the position.
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I’ve been happily selecting Cole Kmet (proven connection with his quarterback) a round after Schultz comes off the board. I’m also more interested in Dalton Kincaid. Not because I think Kincaid’s mean outcome for 2023 is higher than that of the veteran Schultz, but because his offense will put him in a position to succeed.
At this point in the draft, I want roster flexibility. If I draft Kincaid and it becomes clear that he’s not the answer in Buffalo, I won’t hesitate to cut ties. You don’t have that freedom with Schultz, however, due to his success over the past three seasons. And that could very well cost you.
In short, I prefer to stream the position over feeling tied to Schultz in his first season with the Texans.
