The Buffalo Bills will face the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dalton Kincaid.
Is Dalton Kincaid Playing in Week 9?
Kincaid is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Dalton Kincaid in Week 9?
Kincaid has just one finish better than TE10 this season and has yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game — he’s been viable, he just hasn’t taken that Year 2 step that we were hoping for.
Buffalo’s TE1 is a good teaching point about priors. We all enter our fantasy drafts with player takes and a cheat sheet. We have thoughts on 200+ players that we work hard to form, and that’s 100% the right way to go about things.
But leaving those takes in the preseason is a skill that takes some refining. If I laid out the state of the tight end position league-wide and told you that I’d give you 6+ targets every week (Kincaid has done it in five straight games) for the fifth-highest-scoring team in the league, you’d take it and not think twice, right?
But because of our previous thoughts, we are labeling Kincaid as a disappointment. His ADP means nothing now — at the end of the day, you’re getting passable numbers from the TE slot on your roster and that’s a luxury that not all teams have.
I’ve come off of my “Kincaid can be a top-three producer at the position” take, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking for other options; Kincaid is a weekly starter and you don’t need to roster a backup.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 9
Kincaid is projected to score 10.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 4.6 receptions for 44.7 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insights: Miami Dolphins Defense
The Miami Dolphins’ defense had a relatively tough start to the season, but then they picked things up with three top-10 finishes in a row, which saw them climb inside the top 10 of these rankings. That presented some hope that when Tua Tagovailoa returned, the combination of an improved offense and a top-10 defense could see this team quickly jump into playoff contention.
Unfortunately, that high ranking was a product of a soft slate of games in recent weeks that saw the Dolphins take on the Patriots, Titans, and Colts, who all rank among the league’s bottom-10 offenses. Therefore, when faced with a top-10 offense in the Cardinals, they crumbled, finishing the week ranked 29th, their second finish outside the top 25 this season.
The Dolphins are not a bad defense, but their No. 29 rank in sack percentage and No. 26 in turnover rate will leave them vulnerable against the very best offenses, where those splash plays are vital to stalling drives. The Dolphins’ schedule is not too tough going forward, so this defense may end up around the top 10, but they are not looking like one of the best units in the league right now.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Dalton Kincaid’s Week 9 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).
