The Buffalo Bills traded up in the 2023 NFL Draft to select TE Dalton Kincaid to give QB Josh Allen another dynamic weapon in the Buffalo passing game. But can Kincaid make an immediate fantasy impact at the TE position? Let’s take a closer look.
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Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
The TE position generally doesn’t produce many reliable fantasy options in their rookie season. The only player to register a top-10 fantasy finish at the TE position in the last five years is Kyle Pitts back in 2021.
But can Kincaid be the exception to the rule and be a fantasy-relevant option in 2023?
Well, the early signs are that Kincaid is already making splash plays routinely at training camp.
The rookie keeps making plays. 😎#BillsCamp | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/yWltkg5FjE
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills)
Kincaid profiles as a dynamic move TE in the NFL. He is a fluid route runner with excellent body control and soft, reliable hands to make tough catches away from his frame look routine.
The biggest weakness in his game is blocking. However, multiple reports suggest the Bills are going to use him like a WR, which could negate some of the biggest concerns about Kincaid’s transition to the NFL.
The bigger concern for projecting a breakout rookie for season for Kincaid is his target competition. WR Stefon Diggs is a target hog who has seen a minimum of 156 targets each season he has donned a Bills uniform.
Many fantasy managers still believe WR Gabe Davis is in store for a potential breakout season. After all, he is coming off of a career year and saw 93 targets last season.
The Bills still have TE Dawson Knox on the roster, and while Knox will likely see a reduced role in the passing game… it is unlikely he completely disappears from the passing game picture altogether.
Lastly, James Cook is a capable pass catcher out of the backfield.
Kincaid is a great pass-catching TE prospect, but the volume concerns are valid.
Is Kincaid a Good Fantasy Pick?
Right now, Kincaid is coming off the board as the TE11 on draft day. That means he is being drafted as a low-end TE1, which feels like an aggressive projection for a rookie TE.
Does he have the talent to capitalize on the looks he does get in a high-powered Bills offense? Absolutely. However, there is a world where he doesn’t get enough weekly volume to become a reliable fantasy option at the position.
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On the flip side, the TE11 last year in PPR formats produced a stat line of 58-628-4. That is an attainable production goal for Kincaid in this Bills offense. But he would really have to establish him quickly to see a large enough role in the offense to get those type of numbers.
He is capable of it, but he is a bit of a risk at his current draft day price.
- PFN Consensus Rankings: 145th overall
- ADP: 117th overall
