The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the biggest letdowns of the 2024 NFL season. Though a pair of division wins briefly revived the Cowboys’ playoff hopes, that quickly evaporated with a devastating Monday night loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
But with a victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, does that mean they are back in the thick of the playoff race? Not so fast. Using the PFN Playoff Predictor, we look at Dallas’ slim chances of reaching the postseason entering Week 15.
Dallas Cowboys Playoffs Scenarios | Week 15 Update
NFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Rams defeated 49ers, 12-6
- Commanders defeated Saints, 20-19
- Cowboys defeated Panthers, 30-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Cardinals defeated Patriots, 30-17
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Packers defeated Seahawks, 30-13
- Falcons defeated Raiders, 15-9
- Vikings defeated Bears, 30-12
With their 16-point win over the Carolina Panthers, the Cowboys playoff chances improved from a whopping 1.2% to 2.2%. Dallas finishes the season with Tampa Bay, at Philadelphia and home vs. the Commanders.
At 6-8, the Cowboys’ only hope is chasing down the 9-5 Washington Commanders, but with three weeks left, that is looking a slim possibility. That said, if the Commanders drop the next two against the Eagles and Falcons, the Cowboys will host them in Week 18, which is where things could get interesting…maybe.
That’s because even with that, a team other than the Cowboys would be more likely to take advantage of a theoretical Commanders’ collapse. This includes the Rams, who are 8-6, the Cardinals, who are 7-7, or even the Falcons, who are 7-7.
As it relates to the NFC East Division race, the Eagles are 12-2 and winners of ten straight after defeating the Steelers in Week 15. The Cowboys have been long eliminated from NFC East contention.
This means that the 2004 Eagles are still the last team to repeat as NFC East champs, marking the 20th consecutive season with a different division champion from the previous season. They still have some work to do this year, though, as the division is not quite yet guaranteed, with the Commanders sitting in second with a 9-5 record.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
PFN’s Cowboys-Panthers Preview Published Before Kickoff
Preview courtesy PFN’s Jason Katz
Cowboys Defense Hits Different With Micah Parsons … Literally
Before this season, Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons hadn’t missed a game. The 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year has been in the top three in Defensive Player of the Year voting in each of his first three years in the league.
This season, for four games, the Cowboys got a glimpse of life without Parsons.
- Cowboys QB hits per game with Parsons: 5.56
- Cowboys QB hits per game without Parsons: 4.67
- Cowboys pressures per dropback with Parsons: 38.8%
- Cowboys pressures per dropback without Parsons: 35.4%
Another area Parsons makes a huge impact is in the ability to draw holding penalties.
- Opponent holding penalties per game with Parsons: 2.0
- Opponent holding penalties per game without Parsons: 1.0
How Have the Cowboys Adjusted From Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush?
Since losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring tear, the Cowboys have had to change their offensive to cater to Cooper Rush. One way they’ve done this is by designing plays for Rush to get the ball out quicker.
- Dak Prescott’s average time to throw: 2.63 seconds
- Cooper Rush’s average time to throw: 2.29 seconds
What’s Going on With CeeDee Lamb in the Second Half?
In Monday night’s loss to the Bengals, CeeDee Lamb came out on fire, with four receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter. Lamb’s next reception did not come until there were under four minutes left in the third quarter. He finished the game with six catches for 93 yards, meaning he only caught two passes for 22 yards in the second half. This was not an outlier, either.
- Lamb in the first half: 79 targets, 57 receptions, 672 yards, and three touchdowns
- Lamb in the second half: 52 targets, 28 receptions, 301 yards, and two touchdowns
Lamb averages 2.64 yards per route run in the first half against 1.39 yards per route run in the second half.
