While the Dallas Cowboys might not be as star-studded as last season, it has not stopped sportsbooks from giving them favorable NFL odds for the 2022 NFL regular season. Coming off a playoff appearance and a 12-5 record, do early win total predictions put the Cowboys as one of the best bets?
Dallas Cowboys 2022 NFL win total and odds
Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 wins (-115)
It’s safe to say the 2022 NFL offseason and free agency period were both the most chaotic we’ve ever seen and probably the best. It lived up to the hype, with almost every day for several weeks bringing a significant move. Everything from trades to massive signings reshaped the NFL landscape and the balance of power. The way things stand right now, the AFC has become the more difficult conference, something the Cowboys certainly won’t mind.
The Cowboys are coming off a 12-5 season which ended in a loss to the 49ers in the Wild Card round. If they hit their 10.5 win total prediction posted by DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas would have their first back-to-back 10+ win seasons since 1995 and 1996. They also have the chance to make the playoffs in two straight seasons for the first time since 2006 and 2007. That is something Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would consider the bare minimum in terms of expectations.
Dallas still has some needs to address before the season kicks off
Ask any Cowboys fan and you’d get a similar answer. The 2022 version of the team, as it stands, has taken a downturn from the previous season.
While they still have Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb, they’re not as deep as before. Dallas traded four-time Pro Bowl WR Amari Cooper and a 2022 sixth-round pick for a 2022 fifth and sixth-rounder and watched WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. head to the Miami Dolphins, joining Jaylen Waddle and later Tyreek Hill.
With Michael Gallup still recovering from a late-season torn ACL, they will heavily rely on Lamb and the newly signed James Washington at receiver. However, the No. 3 role is up for grabs.
Up front, they also lost G Connor Williams (Miami) and OT La’el Collins (Cincinnati) during free agency. Both were two of the most coveted offensive linemen of the class, but Dallas didn’t have the salary cap space to retain them.
On defense, it was a similar story with the loss of EDGE Randy Gregory to the Denver Broncos on a five-year, $70 million deal. However, they did make additions on this side of the ball. Dallas re-signed DE Dorance Armstrong, S Jayron Kearse, and LB Leighton Vander Esch and signed EDGE Dante Fowler Jr.
The Cowboys need to capitalize in the upcoming NFL Draft to fill any additional holes on their roster to hit their predicted win total. Luckily for them, the moves around the rest of the NFL might have helped.
Dallas Cowboys season-long prediction
As noted, the NFC looks entirely different, with several key players, such as QB Russell Wilson, WR Davante Adams, and EDGE Chandler Jones all heading to the AFC West. EDGE Von Miller is with the Bills, and S Marcus Williams took his talent from New Orleans to Baltimore. Throw in the questions with the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — and the rest of the NFC moves — the Cowboys are in a solid spot, all things considered.
Then, we get to their schedule. This is where the Cowboys find themselves as one of the best bets for the 2022 NFL season when trying to jump on early win totals. For one, the division is still there for the taking. Last season, the Cowboys swept the NFC East. If they hold strong at home and can steal one of two on the road against the Giants, Eagles, or Commanders, a 5-1 divisional record seems attainable — a great start.
Dallas must win the easy games in 2022
Dallas will face the NFC North and AFC South this upcoming season. That means home games against the Bears, Lions, and Texans. All three have a seven-win total prediction or lower, according to DraftKings Sportbook.
Also, they will travel to face the Jaguars, who, despite spending a ton of money in the offseason, are still one of the worst teams in the NFL based on predictions. Dallas should be favored in every game listed so far. Barring injury or something crazy, a 9-1 record up to this point is well within the range of outcomes.
If the Cowboys take care of business, their win total projection is in play
Based on this, the Cowboys would need to win two games against the Colts, Bengals, and Buccaneers (all at home) or the Packers, Vikings, Rams, and Titans (on the road). By no means would this be a cakewalk — it’s the meat of their schedule. Yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were road favorites against Tennessee or Minnesota.
Depending on when they play these teams, they could face them without Robert Woods or Adam Thielen, as both are coming off ACL tears. Even if they are on the field, it’s hard to tell right now if they will be 100% healthy.
If the Cowboys go 3-3 in the NFC East, their odds of hitting the over on 10.5 games drastically drops. They have to take care of business in the division. Dallas’ combined opponent record of 133-155-1 (.462) is tied with Washington for the lowest of any team. In fact, the bottom four are the NFC East because of how bad they were last season. They have to win this division convincingly.
Last season, Dallas had the No. 2-ranked defense in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), and that unit should continue to be among the tops in the league. If the offense holds up its end of the deal, my early lean on the Cowboys’ win total prediction of 10.5 is on the over. If you’re looking for early action, take a flyer on the Cowboys as one of the best bets to cash come early January.
