Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott bounced back nicely from his 2020 season that was cut short due to a fractured ankle. With the Cowboys’ offense looking a bit different in 2022, what can fantasy football managers expect from Prescott, and should you draft him at his current ADP in the 2022 fantasy football draft season?
Dak Prescott’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s become difficult to evaluate quarterbacks for fantasy football because there are just so many good ones. Last season, 11 quarterbacks averaged over 20 fantasy points per game, including Prescott.
In years past, Prescott’s 20.7 ppg would’ve rendered him a high-end QB1. In 2021, he finished as the QB9 (minimum eight games played). Even a mere five years ago, in 2017, Prescott’s 20.5 ppg would’ve made him the QB3.
Prescott threw for 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns last season. He also completed a career-high 68.8% of his passes. Given how prolific Prescott was, how come he wasn’t more productive from a fantasy perspective?
The answer really has nothing to do with Prescott. His performance was fine. He was a fantasy QB1 and had 11 games with at least 20 fantasy points. The real issue is the overall improvement of the best NFL quarterbacks, and that 20 ppg just isn’t what it used to be.
On the field, Prescott was phenomenal. He finished top 10 in completion percentage under pressure, off play-action, and in the red zone. He was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL despite a stretch of games following his calf strain where he was uncharacteristically missing receivers high.
The one knock on Prescott’s profile is he doesn’t run anymore. Prescott averaged 19 rushing yards per game over his first four seasons. He scored 21 rushing touchdowns over that span. In his last two seasons, he’s averaged just 11.4 rushing yards per game and only rushed for four total touchdowns.
There is reason for optimism, though. Prescott was coming off that devastating ankle injury last year. Entering the 2022 campaign, Prescott won’t have to spend the majority of the offseason rehabbing an injury. He will be able to continue to work on his craft, practice with his receivers, and prepare for the upcoming season. It’s also possible he’s willing to run more now that he’s another year removed from the injury.
How the Cowboys’ depth chart impacts Dak Prescott’s fantasy projection for the season
The Cowboys underwent a few significant changes this offseason that may help or hurt Prescott, depending on your perspective. On the offensive side of the ball, they traded Amari Cooper to the Browns. Replacing him are former Steeler James Washington and rookie third-rounder Jalen Tolbert.
Cooper has been Prescott’s WR1 since the Cowboys traded for him in 2018. Now, CeeDee Lamb will finally need to emerge into the true alpha the Cowboys believe he can be. Prescott will also need Michael Gallup to step up. Gallup has been effective, but he’s likely going to miss the start of 2022 due to his late-season ACL tear. Washington will also miss the start of the season due to a broken foot. Prescott will have to rely on Lamb and Dalton Schultz while quickly developing a rapport with Tolbert.
The Cowboys also lost a couple of key defensive players. This defense played very well last season but is poised to regress a bit in 2022. While this is bad for the Cowboys, it may actually be good for Prescott. In 2020, the Cowboys had a historically bad defense through the first five weeks of the season. As a result, they were constantly trailing and having to throw, leading to Prescott averaging 27.9 ppg. He was on pace to shatter the single-season passing yards record and may have done it had he not shattered his ankle instead.
There’s also the matter of the Cowboys’ offensive line. They lost La’el Collins, and 31-year-old Tyron Smith can’t stay healthy anymore. The good news is the Cowboys recognized this and drafted Tyler Smith in the first round. Whether he’s their next elite offensive lineman remains to be seen, but at least they’re trying to address the problem.
Prescott has the talent to be an elite QB1. He just needs the perfect team situation, much like he had in 2020 for those five weeks. Prescott’s 596 pass attempts from 2016 were a career-high. If the Cowboys are just a little worse on defense this year, Prescott could top that number and finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Prescott’s ADP for 2022
Prescott’s ADP is around 80th overall as the QB8. It’s a fair ADP for Prescott. He goes right around where he should amongst quarterbacks. His current position in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings is 85th overall as the QB9. However, know Prescott’s ceiling is top five at the position.
As with most quarterbacks, though, I’m not really interested in drafting Prescott unless the circumstances are right. He either needs to fall farther than he should, or the draft board needs to be such that I’m not enamored with any running backs or wide receivers.
