As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Dak Prescott.
Dak Prescott’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
For a long time, having an elite quarterback in dynasty leagues wasn’t that important. It was always more important than in redraft leagues because, with deeper rosters, it’s not as easy to just stream the position. At the same time, having a passable starter was usually good enough.
Prescott has always been a productive fantasy quarterback. Through seven seasons, he’s never averaged fewer than 17.1 fantasy points per game.
Once upon a time, anything above 16 ppg was considered good enough. Those were QB1 numbers. More recently, however, anything below 18 ppg is just not up to par.
With so many quarterbacks cresting the 20 points-per-game threshold and the elite guys being that much better, a passable back-end QB1 just isn’t the same as it used to be. The biggest question for fantasy managers is what Prescott is going to be.
In 2022, Prescott averaged 17.8 ppg. It was his worst season from a fantasy perspective since 2017.
We’ve seen him finish as an elite QB1 before. Prescott was the overall QB3 in 2019 and was on pace to finish as the overall QB1 before shattering his ankle in 2020.
There’s also been a clear shift in Prescott’s playing style since his ankle injury. He doesn’t really run anymore. Over the first three seasons of his career, Prescott rushed for six touchdowns in each, and over his first four seasons, he averaged about 300 rushing yards per year.
In 2021 and 2022, Prescott rushed for two touchdowns total. He doesn’t need the rushing production to be a QB1, but it certainly bolstered both his floor and ceiling.
Prescott is signed through the 2024 season, with two years left on his current deal. He’ll turn 30 years old this year. While that may be old for other positions, it’s nowhere near old for a quarterback. There’s no reason Prescott can’t play at a high level for the better part of the next decade.
Dak Prescott’s Fantasy Ranking
Prescott’s dynasty value is in an interesting spot. If you have him on your roster, regardless of whether you’re in win-now mode or rebuilding, don’t give him up unless you’re getting a clear upgrade.
The state of the QB position in the NFL is as bad as I can remember. More than half of the teams cannot say for certain that they have their quarterback of the future on their roster. Prescott is undoubtedly the Cowboys’ answer under center. Barring something unforeseen, they won’t think about the QB position until at least 2030.
Prescott hasn’t displayed the ceiling we saw in 2019 and 2020 over the past two seasons. However, we do know it exists. That gives him elite upside, even if it’s not particularly likely he hits it, especially with the Cowboys having an elite defense.
Those ceiling games may be even fewer and farther between, with Mike McCarthy jettisoning OC Kellen Moore because, apparently, he doesn’t like how Moore wants to score a lot of points. McCarthy wants to “run the damn ball,” which is the last thing any head coach should be saying in the year 2023.
What I value most about Prescott, though, is his floor. Even in a season where so many quarterbacks were unreliable outside of the elites, Prescott never cost fantasy managers a matchup by himself.
Prescott got hurt in Week 1 and then returned in Week 7 with considerable rust. From Week 8 onward, his worst performance was 15.7 fantasy points. He threw multiple touchdowns in all but one game for the rest of the season, excluding Week 18.
I would consider Prescott a low-end QB1 in dynasty, but one with a very high floor. He is currently ranked as the QB12, No. 24 overall in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings.
Having an elite quarterback is advantageous in fantasy. But having a black hole at QB is worse than an elite quarterback is beneficial. Prescott is as safe as it gets. If you need to reach a little bit for him as your QB1 in dynasty startup drafts, you very likely won’t regret it.
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