Carolina Panthers wide receiver D. Moore has been a better real-life wide receiver than a fantasy football receiver for his entire career. Is this the year Moore’s fantasy production finally catches up with his talent? What can fantasy managers expect from Moore in the 2022 season, and is he worth his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
DJ Moore’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Moore is nothing if not consistent. Over his last three seasons, he has finished with between 1,157 and 1,193 receiving yards and exactly four touchdowns. He’s averaged between 14 and 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game. And Moore has only missed two games in his four-year career. When you draft him, you know he won’t fail you.
The problem, of course, is Moore has yet to really make a difference. He’s been purely a floor player. In the past two seasons, Moore has finished as a low WR2/high WR3.
In 2021, Moore posted his highest target share of his career at 28.5%. He was sixth amongst wide receivers in routes run and fifth in target share. Volume is not the issue for Moore. His problem is touchdowns.
For years, Julio Jones was maligned as someone that couldn’t score. It certainly seemed random that this 6’3″, 220-pound athletic freak wasn’t scoring touchdowns. With Moore, it’s a bit different. Moore doesn’t score touchdowns because he doesn’t get targeted in the red zone.
How the Panthers’ depth chart impacts DJ Moore’s fantasy projection for the season
In his career, Moore has a total of 42 red-zone targets. That’s across 63 games played — just 0.67 red-zone targets per game. It’s certainly possible the Panthers just don’t see the 6’0″, 210-pound receiver as a red-zone option, but there are other factors at play.
Carolina’s depth chart leaves a lot to be desired, especially at quarterback. Moore is quickly heading down the Allen Robinson path in terms of quality of quarterback play. As a rookie in 2018, Moore caught passes from a declining Cam Newton. Since then, the best quarterback he’s played with is Teddy Bridgewater, who most would classify as a borderline NFL starter/high-end backup. Every other quarterback is not a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL — Kyle Allen, Will Grier, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and the 2021 version of Newton.
Baker Mayfield is a clear upgrade on Sam Darnold
It seemed unfathomable that the Panthers would somehow once again roll out Darnold as their starter. This is a man with a career completion percentage under 60%. He has more interceptions than touchdowns in each of his past two seasons. And his 6.2 yards per attempt in 2021 was 29th in the league. Fortunately, the Panthers did make a move, acquiring Baker Mayfield from the Browns.
Moore remains the clear WR1 in Carolina. His target share will remain elite as there is plenty to go around between him and Christian McCaffrey. WR2 Robbie Anderson is not a threat. Brandon Zylstra and Rashard Higgins are rotational WR4/5s. Tight ends Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas are not significant parts of the offense. And there’s no reason to discuss sophomore wide receiver Terrace Marshall — he’s just not an NFL-caliber wide receiver.
Moore certainly has the talent to produce a WR1 season. With Mayfield, I have more confidence in Moore’s ability to finally realize his potential. Mayfield could propel Moore to a 1,300-yard season and finally get him more than four touchdowns. If even one of those things happens, Moore will be a value this season.
Moore’s ADP for 2022
Moore’s ADP is in the late-fourth round as the WR17. This is a great price for Moore. There’s certainly some progression baked in, but by no means is he being priced at his ceiling. Moore sits 12th among receivers and 30th overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
If it turns out Mayfield is no better than the previous cavalcade of quarterbacks Moore’s had to deal with, at worst, we should get “Moore” of the same (you see what I did there?). 14 ppg is not ideal from a mid WR2, but it’s not going to torpedo your season.
At Moore’s ADP, I like him more than the running backs, which seems to be a theme surrounding the wide receivers this season. Fantasy managers should be happy to grab Moore at any point in the fourth round.
