If you’re looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 13, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Is this the season Dallas returns to the Super Bowl? One might argue that they haven’t had this complete of a team in decades. Last year was close, and the 13-3 squads in 2007 and 2016 could contend as this franchise’s best of the 21st century.
But for my money, this year’s Cowboys are locked in as a title contender. They’re averaging 33.8 points per game in Dak Prescott’s five full contests (i.e. not including his injury-shortened Week 1 performance). For context, the Chiefs lead the league with 29.6 per game.
Oh, and the Cowboys’ defense has yielded the second-fewest points per game (17.0). In Prescott’s five complete games, it’s 17.8. Despite some hiccups (see: Packers), clearly they’re going to be a tough out in January and possibly February as well.
This DFS slate has the makings of a 5-1 split, where we lock down five high-ceiling Cowboys on the assumption they’ll run over the descending Colts.
Ah, that brings us to the Colts. Can we trust the immobile Matt Ryan against a defense that leads the league in sacks? Of course not.
Can we trust the high-priced Jonathan Taylor with the potential for a massively negative game script looming? Probably not.
Can we buy into another impressive performance by the expensive Michael Pittman Jr.? Presumably not.
Look, if we were to bet on a close contest, then of course, Taylor and Pittman would be in play. But I’m not seeing it. For the past three seasons, Indy has gambled on veteran QBs to help carry them over the top. It hasn’t worked out, and none have been a greater failure than the Ryan experiment.
If Nick Foles is active for this one, I believe we’ll see him enter in the second half. Either way, this could be Ryan’s final NFL start of his career. It’s a perfect storm of a QB who no longer has it, a new head coach who’s learning on the job, a star RB who’s lost three fumbles in his last six games, and an elite defense ready to do damage.
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: Cowboys D/ST ($9,300)
To get nearly everyone we want in this lineup, this relatively cheap unit needs to be in our Captain slot. It would require an immense leap of faith and better judgment to believe Ryan won’t commit at least one turnover and absorb at least three sacks.
Flex: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($10,800)
Expensive and safe. The hope here is that if it’s a blowout win, CeeDee Lamb is a big reason why. A roughly 5-85 receiving line seems realistic. The key is whether he scores. I like his odds.
Flex: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($10,200)
A no-brainer. Indy has been near elite against the run (3.9 yards per carry). I’m not expecting Ezekiel Elliott to pave lanes over defenders. Prescott should hit 250+ yards and 2+ scores.
Flex: RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($8,200)
Tony Pollard’s brilliance through the air is one quality that distinguishes him from Elliott. Pollard has a great shot at scoring. Regardless, 80+ total yards seems doable.
Flex: TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($5,800)
Still a bargain. He’s produced elite DFS numbers in five full games with Prescott. Fire him up once again.
Flex: WR Parris Campbell ($5,200)
With $5,700 remaining, let’s roll with Parris Campbell. He’s Ryan’s No. 2 receiver, and his 4.31 speed is appealing for a player who needs one big gain to justify his placement in this lineup.
While we could go cheaper with a tight end, I want a bigger ceiling. Despite the Colts’ struggles, Campbell has hit 18.7+ points in three of his last seven games. Don’t count him out.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.