My Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers prediction examines the latest chapter in one of the NFL’s greatest historical rivalries. The great Steve Young sat with me and Trey Wingo to tell us just what this rivalry means to the league.
Both quarterbacks in this one have the chance to build a legacy as well. Dak Prescott dominated in the Cowboys’ first road playoff win in 30 years. Brock Purdy is looking to continue the journey to being the first rookie to start a Super Bowl, as Mr. Irrelevant, no less.
My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with these Cowboys vs. 49ers odds. The spread presents an intriguing opportunity to cash a win, as the books think this game will be closer than the model does.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds | Divisional Round
- Spread
49ers -4 - Moneyline
49ers -195 - Over/Under
OVER 46
*Odds provided by, and my personal bets, placed at Caesars Sportsbook.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 19-5-1 on Wild Card Weekend, going up +99.5u and sporting a +160.43% ROI. For the season, the model is 176-85-7* on bets against the spread, moneylines, and props.
The model had an average projected point range within five points of the actual scores. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Jacksonville vs. Kansas City prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL playoff bracket prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
Cowboys vs. 49ers has made for some of the best playoff football in the history of the NFL. The days of Steve Young vs. Troy Aikman in back-to-back NFC Championship games brings all kinds of great memories. These teams have met eight times in the playoffs, with six of them determining who would go on to the Super Bowl.
This game does not have that gravitas, both at the QB position nor in the weight of the outcome. The loser goes home, but the winner still has one more test before reaching the big game. For Prescott and Purdy, this game may be the moment we look back on both of their careers as the birth of a legacy.
The 49ers with Purdy have been explosive, to say the least. It’s become commonplace to attribute San Francisco’s resurgence to Christian McCaffery becoming the starting running back on Oct. 30, but the numbers would suggest otherwise.
MORE: A Dak Prescott Heater Could Put Cowboys on a Super Bowl Trajectory
In the six games with McCaffery starting and Purdy on the bench, the Niners were actually decaying in scoring behavior rate (SBR) by 25% week over week. They had only scored above one point per minute of possession time once in that span and scored less than 0.7 points in SBR in four out of the six games.
Enter Purdy.
In the six games with Mr. Irrelevant as the starter, the 49ers are scoring 51% more in SBR on average, have seen 84% growth week over week compared to the six games prior, and have become 21% more consistent week to week. To pretend that Purdy has not been a major part of the 49ers’ success is a fool’s errand.
Next week, against Dallas, San Francisco will be sporting an offense that has scored 1.1 points per minute of possession time in five of their last six games. The growth rate of 37% over that span projects that, in a vacuum, they could score as much as 43 points in this game. Seems like a lot?
They just scored 41 last week and have been within one possession of 43 points in four out of their last six games.
Dallas’ defense, though, will be the unique variable in this week’s environment. They have been formidable, to say the least. But don’t get caught up in what you saw in the Wild Card round. The Bucs were a bad football team, and Tom Brady has been a bad quarterback this year.
Nevertheless, since the bye, the Cowboys have been great at keeping opponents below the one-point-per-minute-of-possession-time threshold, having let that happen only one time.
The key for Dallas is going to be limiting possession time. The 49ers score at the highest SBR in football. In a vacuum, they’re projected to have a scoring behavior prevention rate (SBPR) of one point for every minute and 20 seconds of possession time.
The truth lies somewhere in between. In this Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction, San Francisco is projected to score 32 points.
Cowboys Need To Keep the Ball
The Cowboys need to keep the ball, not just for themselves, but to also keep it away from the 49ers. San Francisco (under Purdy) is the only team with a higher SBR than Dallas since Dak came back from injury. This week, the Cowboys face the toughest defense they have all season in San Francisco.
That will be a far tougher test than scoring on the Bucs. If they stop you, the ball goes back to a beaten-down Brady, who was lucky to even be there. If the Niners stop the Cowboys, however, the ball goes back to the only team who scores faster than them.
Dallas has played 11 games since Dak came back from injury. In six of them, they had at least a one-point SBR. In eight of those games, they had at least a 0.95-point SBR. That is ridiculous consistency, and they’ll need it to keep up with the other side.
It can be easy to get caught up in Dallas’ 31-point total last week. Over 30 is always good. But how they got there is what they need to repeat, not necessarily the number. The Cowboys controlled the ball for over 34 minutes against the Buccaneers. At one point, even, they had an eight-minute scoring drive.
Drives like that, with a methodical, ball-control mindset, are going to be the recipe for success in this one. That should not be read as conservative. Take the shots when they’re there. But make sure you get the five-yarders that are there too. If Dallas loses the time-of-possession battle, they’ll likely lose the game.
The 49ers have been the second-best ball control team in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys ranked 20th. That holds true this week, with Dallas projected to score 22 points in this Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction
49ers 32, Cowboys 22