The Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Courtland Sutton.
Is Courtland Sutton Playing vs. the Bills?
Sutton is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Broncos’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Courtland Sutton on Wild Card Weekend?
Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (previous two seasons: four touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns can be fluky on a game-to-game basis, nevermind season-to-season, but the usage trends are very much in his favor, and that is what I’m comfortable with in this profile
This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% last season). This offense is better than we could have imagined and they are routinely trusting their WR1 with finishing drives, something that makes the spike in scoring rate much more sustainable.
And it’s only getting better.
During the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a number that trails only triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and maybe the best receiver in the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Bills are an average red-zone defense that allows touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (22nd), giving us every reason to think that Denver’s WR1 can once again produce.
All the signs look great, including the projected game script, but this is the spot where I’m getting my leverage. I’m not confident that any member of Denver garners a ton of ownership. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated way for my upside lineup and it doesn’t include their alpha target earner.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Courtland Sutton’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend?
As of Sunday, Sutton is projected to score 18.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.5 receptions for 86.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th this year. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
For the season, Buffalo had a strong run defense (sixth in EPA per rush) but a leaky pass defense (26th in EPA per dropback). Dominating the AFC East cellar-dwellers was a nice palette cleanser before potential playoff matchups against the likes of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes (if they escape the Broncos).
Buffalo's offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged in the playoffs to help the Josh Allen-Sean McDermott era reach its first Super Bowl.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head over to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Courtland Sutton’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card WR PPR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAR)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIN)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (vs. LAC)
5) Mike Evans | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Ladd McConkey | LAC (at HOU)
7) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at TB)
8) Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BUF)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
10) Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAR)
11) Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIN)
12) George Pickens | PIT (at BAL)
13) Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. WAS)
14) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. DEN)
15) Quentin Johnston | LAC (at HOU)
16) Jayden Reed | GB (at PHI)
17) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at BUF)
18) Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs. PIT)
19) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Romeo Doubs | GB (at PHI)
21) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at TB)
22) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Calvin Austin III | PIT (at BAL)
24) Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PHI)
25) John Metchie III | HOU (vs. LAC)
26) Jalen Nailor | MIN (at LAR)
27) Devaughn Vele | DEN (at BUF)
28) Dyami Brown | WAS (at TB)
29) Sterling Shepard | TB (vs. WAS)
30) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. DEN)
31) Mike Williams | PIT (at BAL)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (vs. MIN)
33) Diontae Johnson | HOU (vs. LAC)
34) Nelson Agholor | BAL (vs. PIT)
35) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
36) DJ Chark | LAC (at HOU)
37) Van Jefferson | PIT (at BAL)
38) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at TB)
39) Troy Franklin | DEN (at BUF)
40) Robert Woods | HOU (vs. LAC)
41) Malik Heath | GB (at PHI)
42) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. DEN)
43) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (vs. LAC)
44) Bo Melton | GB (at PHI)
45) Jordan Whittington | LAR (vs. MIN)
46) Tylan Wallace | BAL (vs. PIT)
47) Derius Davis | LAC (at HOU)
48) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. GB)
49) Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN (at BUF)
50) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at TB)
51) Tyler Johnson | LAR (vs. MIN)
52) Ryan Miller | TB (vs. WAS)
53) Devontez Walker | BAL (vs. PIT)
54) Trey Palmer | TB (vs. WAS)
55) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. GB)
56) Rakim Jarrett | TB (vs. WAS)
57) Brandon Powell | MIN (at LAR)
58) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
59) Anthony Miller | BAL (vs. PIT)
60) Christian Watson | GB (at PHI)
61) Tyrell Shavers | BUF (vs. DEN)
62) Roman Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
63) K.J. Osborn | BUF (vs. DEN)
64) Dennis Houston | TB (vs. WAS)
65) Dayton Wade | BAL (vs. PIT)
66) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. GB)
67) Dez Fitzpatrick | LAC (at HOU)
68) David Sills V | DEN (at BUF)
69) Cody Thompson | TB (vs. WAS)
70) Brycen Tremayne | WAS (at TB)
71) Cornelius Johnson | GB (at PHI)
72) Kazmeir Allen | WAS (at TB)
73) Lucky Jackson | MIN (at LAR)
74) Drake Stoops | LAR (vs. MIN)
75) Danny Gray | PHI (vs. GB)
76) Xavier Smith | LAR (vs. MIN)
Broncos at Bills Trends and Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: Bo Nix got this team to 10 wins. Their last double-digit win season came in 2015, a season that ended with a Super Bowl.
QB: Bo Nix made NFL history as the first QB with 3+ TD passes and 75% complete in four games as a rookie. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four such games in both 2012 and 2013).
Offense: Since Week 11, the Broncos have been the third-highest scoring team in the league (32.6 PPG).
Defense: The Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, their first win this season in a game in which they didn’t force a turnover (lost the previous four).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (two seasons prior: four touchdowns on 207 targets).
Betting: Over the past two months, the Broncos have two losses on normal-to-extended rest – an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and a two-point loss to Patrick Mahomes (GW 35-yard FGA was blocked at the buzzer).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have made the postseason in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott (he was hired with the franchise on a 17-year playoff drought).
QB: This is the sixth straight season in which Josh Allen is playing on Wild Card Weekend – he’s completed at least 70% of his passes in three of his past four, with multiple TD tosses in each of those contests (one touchdown pass for every 13.5 attempts across those four contests).
Offense: The first 30-30 team in NFL history (passing and rushing touchdowns). Balance is good until it’s not – only twice in NFL history has a team with 30+ rush TDs won their conference (2022 Eagles and 1983 Commanders).
Defense: Excluding Week 18, when most of the starters were very limited, if not out altogether, the Buffalo defensive trends on third down are concerning.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5%
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% converted
Fantasy: Remove the outlier shootout game against the Rams in Week 14 and Amari Cooper has been targeted on just 15.4% of his routes as a member of the Bills (Weeks 1-6 with Cleveland: 22.8%).
Betting: The Bills went 5-3 ATS at home with overs going 6-2, a change of pace from their 4-5 ATS mark and 3-6 overs record a season ago.