How did Rachaad White perform as a rookie? Well. The answer to that depends on your perspective. We’re about to embark on a journey together where we discover whether White has the potential to post a top-15 RB finish in fantasy football this season.
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Is Rachaad White Good at Football?
It’s only July. There is still so much time between now and fantasy draft season. Yet, I’ve already experienced quite the whirlwind of emotions when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ RB1.
As a prospect, I was a fan of White’s. At 214 pounds, he has the NFL size to be a three-down back, and his 4.48 40-time put his speed score in the 82nd percentile. White also has the most coveted skill we look for in fantasy running backs — receiving ability. In his final year at Arizona State, he commanded a 16% target share.
White opened his rookie season backing up Leonard Fournette. He was a firm backup who only played when Fournette needed a breather. But as the season went on, and Fournette’s inefficiency became more obvious, White earned a bigger role.
By the second half of the season, this backfield was a straight-up timeshare. It was as even as it gets in terms of opportunity. Fournette and White had a “your turn/my turn” thing going on where they simply alternated drives. There was no clear passing-down or goal-line back. The guy who started the drive finished it.
As a result of the way White’s rookie year played out, it’s difficult to glean anything from his overall volume numbers. For example, White’s 8% target share is unimpressive, but he also averaged just 11.1 routes run per game over his first nine games. Over his final seven games (excluding Week 18), he averaged 20.1 routes run per game.
White definitely looked comfortable catching passes out of the backfield. It’s clear reports of him being a quality receiver were accurate. The problem was his rushing ability — or lack thereof.
Both White and Fournette were horribly inefficient last season. For a guy with his level of speed and burst, White looked like he was running through a river of caramel at times. His 2.54 yards created per touch was 35th in the league, and just 3.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards (44th).
Proponents of White will use that as evidence that the Bucs had a bad offensive line (which is true, as evidenced by the 1.5 yards per before contact they generated) and were a bad offense (which is also true).
According to a chart put together by Fantasypoints’ Ryan Heath, White was one of the worst running backs in the league at evading tackles, a metric that is situation neutral. He was worse than Fournette, too.
Heath goes on to say that “there are literally no efficiency stats he did well in. I’ve obviously looked.” Well, I looked, too, and Heath isn’t wrong.
Even as a receiver, White’s 1.19 yards per route run was worse than Fournette’s 1.44. White was 61st in yards after the catch per reception against Fournette’s 31st. There’s really no way of spinning White’s rookie season performance as anything other than a disaster.
So, is White good at football? I’m not so sure.
Rachaad White Is Poised for Massive Volume
Now, for some positivity on White. Volume remains king in fantasy football, and it’s difficult to paint a picture where White doesn’t see a whole lot of it.
Currently, Tampa Bay’s depth chart behind White consists of Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds, and rookie UDFA Sean Tucker. This is a situation ripe for someone to emerge. However, the Bucs simply lack the talent for anyone to seriously challenge White.
My projections have White pegged for 231 carries and a 12% target share. Here’s the thing about White’s volume, though. It’s not going to be as valuable as it was even last season.
Tom Brady is gone. Replacing him is Baker Mayfield and potentially Kyle Trask. This is not going to be the same offense that led the NFL in passing volume over the past two seasons.
At ages 44 and 45, Brady led the NFL in pass attempts. He threw 719 passes in 2021 and 733 in 2022. That number is going to come crashing down. I have the Bucs projected for 563 pass attempts, which is still a decent amount, but it’s quite the precipitous decline from what they’ve been during the Brady era.
Despite White’s projected 12% target share from me, that only comes out to 68 targets. Of course, that could be an under-projection. However, Tampa still has Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. At best, White will be the third option in the passing game for a quarterback with a career 61.4% completion percentage. This offense is not only losing passing volume but passing efficiency as well.
If White has to rely heavily on his rushing to score fantasy points, he’s going to struggle to produce. Tampa Bay’s offensive line should be better, but it’s still unlikely to be a top-20 unit.
The QB downgrade will allow teams to stack the box even more, as they won’t be afraid of Mayfield or Trask. The offense was already not particularly good last season, scoring just 31 total touchdowns. How much better can we project them to be?
Is There a Path to the Top 15 for Rachaad White?
Touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. I’ve got White scoring about nine of them, which feels very generous. In total, my projections for White have him with nearly 300 opportunities, yet averaging just 12.7 PPR fantasy points per game. That comes out to an RB25 finish.
Last year was a down year for RB scoring. The RB15 averaged just 14 ppg. Historically, 15 ppg is about the threshold a back needs to hit. Can White get there?
Outlier touchdown years are always plausible. It’s possible the Bucs — who scored just five rushing touchdowns all of last season — happen to score a large percentage of what few TDs they do score on the ground this season. White could, in theory, run for 12 while catching three more. Fifteen touchdowns would be on the extremely high end of White’s ceiling outcome, but it’s not impossible.
Still, even if we tack on another five TDs to my projection, White still would come up to about 0.5 ppg short of the number he needs to hit. So, he’ll still need more production somewhere else.
The good news is I do think my projections leave plenty of room for more in terms of both volume and efficiency. I have White handling 52.2% of the Bucs carries. There’s a scenario where he’s a true workhorse and pushes toward 70%. White doesn’t strike me as the type of back to see 300 carries, but it’s not impossible.
The more plausible way for White to increase his fantasy production would be via efficiency and the passing game. Perhaps the Bucs do throw more than I expect, and White also sees a target share upwards of 15%. I have him projected for 53 receptions, but if he catches 70+ balls, that would be a great start.
Given my opinion on White’s talent, I have him projected for 3.5 yards per carry. However, he could top 4.0 or push 4.5 if he turns out to be much better than he showed as a rookie. It’s not unprecedented that he improves from his rookie to sophomore year.
While certainly not the best comparison, Le’Veon Bell was woefully inefficient as a rookie with 3.5 ypc. That jumped to 4.7 as a sophomore. Don’t get too excited about that comparison, though. Bell is a one-of-one runner, and the mid-2010s Steelers had an elite offensive line and Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. These are very different situations.
Ultimately, if we give White heavier volume, say 270 carries at 4.0 ypc, 60 receptions at 7.0 ypr, and 12 total touchdowns, we can get him to 16.5 ppg. That’s firmly inside the top 15 running backs. With all that said, just because White can finish top 15 doesn’t mean he’s likely to.
For most of the offseason, I was against White, believing last year’s struggles were mostly his fault. After seeing his RB27 ADP, I was starting to come around. Many fantasy analysts I respect are on White this season. I went into this article with a very open mind, almost hoping to find reasons to move him up my rankings.
Unfortunately, the end result for me is that I don’t believe White is a particularly talented player. If his ADP remains outside the top 24, the opportunity cost is low enough that the upside is worth chasing. However, I won’t be going out of my way to try and draft White this season.