Coming into Week 14 with a 3-9 record put the Washington Commanders on the brink of elimination from the NFL Playoffs, but not mathematically out. The Week 14 slate and tiebreak math made the margin razor-thin.
On that note, let us take a look at the Commanders’ chances to make the postseason.
How Far Can the Washington Commanders Go?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, coming into Week 13, Washington had a 0.2% chance to win the division and make the playoffs.
Seed probabilities reflect the reality: zero across most slots, with only a trace fourth-seed path buried within multi‑team chaos. Translating that into scenarios, Washington effectively needed to win out and sweep remaining NFC games to survive tiebreaks.
Unfortunately, a 31-0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings has ruined the Commanders’ hopes of making the postseason. Not only did they lose the game, but Jayden Daniels suffered another injury.
Jayden Daniels just threw an INT and then got obliterated on the return. Man…pic.twitter.com/yOMs49lCKf
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 7, 2025
PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, which estimates how the season will pan out for the entire league based on strength of schedule, makes the scale clear. After the loss against the Vikings, the Commanders have a 0% chance of making the postseason.
This week, the blueprint was to beat the Vikings first, then let the board breathe. If Philadelphia loses to Los Angeles, Washington would have been in play to make the playoffs going into Week 15.
Unfortunately, the loss against the Vikings has all but ensured that the Commanders’ season is over. They will now look forward to the 2026 NFL Draft and hope that Daniels recovers from his injury soon.
MORE: 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks
Before Week 14, the Commanders had a 2.30% chance to land the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. However, with the loss against the Vikings, their chances of securing a better draft pick have improved, as they now have a 7.4% chance of landing the top pick.
Commanders’ Remaining Fixtures
These are the remaining games the Commanders will play this season:
Week 15: at New York Giants
Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles
With Daniels out, the Commanders could potentially lose all their remaining games. While it may not look ideal now, in the long term, it will help Washington as they could draft some impactful players.
Apart from their starting quarterback, tight end Zach Ertz also suffered a major injury against the Vikings, and he could potentially miss the rest of the season.
