As is tradition, the second Thanksgiving game today will be taking place in Arlington, Texas, as we have the Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is coming off wins by a combined 55 points and are heavy favorites yet again against a familiar foe. Before we dive into the Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions, let’s take a look at the betting lines.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
The Cowboys are double-digit favorites for the third week in a row and have covered each of the last two games when giving 10+ points. The Commanders are 2-0 ATS when getting more than a touchdown this season, with both games coming against the Eagles.
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Spread
Cowboys -13.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +540, Cowboys -770 - Total
47.5
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions
Bearman:Â Going back to the well here. I’ve played the over on player props for WR1s against the Commanders since Week 3, and they hit in eight consecutive weeks. This streak came to an end last week when I picked the wrong Giants wide receiver, but had I taken Darius Slayton, we would be looking at nine straight winners and counting.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 12
There is no reason not to run this back with one of the best wide receivers in the game in CeeDee Lamb. This line might be high, but that didn’t stop me from taking A.J. Brown to go over 93.5 receiving yards a couple of weeks ago, who finished the day with 130.
Lamb is averaging 101.3 yards per game, which is higher than this line.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb over 88.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â This Dallas offense is hitting on all cylinders right now and is facing a Commanders defense that they should dominate, much like the Giants and Panthers the last two weeks.
The biggest difference between those two teams and the Commanders, however, is that Washington has a significantly better offense. The Giants and Panthers are 31st and 32nd in yards per game — the Commanders are 12th. While it’s a given the Cowboys should up a lot of points in this matchup, the Commanders offense is more than capable of scoring themselves, especially if this reaches garbage time early.
Even if this game ends up being more competitive than the point spread indicates, then it’s probably more likely that this is a back-and-forth shootout rather than a defensive battle.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: The Dallas Cowboys undoubtedly have one of the best defenses in the league. But man, 38.5 is just really low.
Brian Robinson has run quite well this season. He’s gone over this number in seven of his 11 games and landed exactly on 38 once. Even in a negative game script last week, Robinson saw 17 carries.
MORE: 2024 Super Bowl Odds
The Cowboys completely blew out the Panthers last week. Yet, both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders sailed over their rushing yardage lines.
Even with the Cowboys likely to control the game against the Commanders, Robinson should still be a safe bet for 10-12 carries. That should be enough to get him to 40+ rushing yards.
Pick: Brian Robinson over 38.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: We are 11 weeks into the NFL season, and we know exactly what the Commanders want to do: throw the rock. They’ve been a top-five offense in pass rate over expectation for a month now, and it’s difficult to envision that changing any time soon.
With that in mind and a big spread where the pass expectation is going to be high anyway, why not target volume-oriented props tied to Sam Howell? Given this total, we expect there to be some points put on the board. In games this season when there are over 40 total points scores, Howell is completing 32 passes per game.
Pick: Sam Howell over 25.5 completions (-120 at DraftKings)
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
