The Indianapolis Colts‘ wide receiver group is loaded with potential but will it translate to multiple fantasy football options that managers can rely on?
Can Michael Pittman re-produce his career year from a fantasy perspective, and will either or both Adonai Mitchell and Josh Downs be regular fantasy options in 2024?
Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Pittman, Mitchell, and Downs to see which of them could be a good value in drafts this season.
Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 278.2 (161.4 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 116.8
- Receiving Yards: 1242.7
- Receiving TDs: 5.5
It was a small sample size, but in the two full games in which both Richardson and Pittman played during the former’s rookie campaign, the duo connected on nine passes for 112 yards and a score on 16 targets. Now, there is some noise to these numbers because Richardson played sparingly in Week 2 and Week 5 before the rookie signal caller exited the game due to injury. Pittman caught 13 passes for 108 yards on 19 targets over those two games.
It is difficult to determine if Pittman will continue to see the same volume of looks he saw from Minshew in 2024. He saw 10+ targets in six of the final 11 games of the year once Richardson was sent to injured reserve, and one of those games was cut short due to a concussion suffered in the first half.
Perhaps trying to sift through the small data we have with both Pittman and Richardson on the field together is the wrong approach to determining his role in this offense. Head coach Shane Steichen made Pittman the driving force of this passing game, which saw him fourth among all WRs with a 30.5% target share in 2023.
Additionally, Pittman was heavily utilized in the slot with 275 snaps from that alignment — which ranked 32nd among all receivers and showcases his ideal versatility and how it fits perfectly into Steichen’s offensive scheme. He actually saw a similar quantity of slot snaps and target share as A.J. Brown during Steichen’s last year as offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022.
Pittman continues to feel like an undervalued fantasy asset if we are going by his current ADP of WR18 off the board at No. 33 overall. His usage projects as a player who is trending up and could make the leap inside the top 10 at the WR position in 2024 if Richardson proves to be a plus-level producer through the air in Steichen’s system.
The room for more potential fantasy production is clear when you take a closer look at his numbers. Eleven WRs saw more than 140+ targets in 2023. Pittman and Wilson were the only two players who scored fewer than five receiving TDs in that group.
Some positive touchdown regression could be in session if the target volume continues to hover around 30%, which means I’m going to have quite a few fantasy shares of Pittman this upcoming season if his ADP holds at this position through the draft season.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 153.3 (102.6 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 50.7
- Receiving Yards: 759.9
- Receiving TDs: 4.2
Mitchell’s ADP currently sits at No. 169 overall (WR62 off the board). For some context, Mitchell is being drafted behind other receivers like Joshua Palmer, Xavier Legette, and Jerry Jeudy.
There’s no denying Mitchell’s physical talent as a prospect entering the league. The biggest question mark is his target volume.
Mitchell’s explosive vertical speed, route-running savvy, and excellent hands give him the skills of a potential high-end fantasy WR2. Yet, we can’t really reasonably project what his production will be with Richardson’s limited sample size as a passer and the target competition present in Indianapolis’ offense.
Mitchell will undoubtedly have his big fantasy performances when Richardson can connect on the deep downfield shots this offense can generate. Yet, we simply don’t know how often Richardson will be able to hit those shots.
If you’re looking for upside in the 13th-14th round, I like Mitchell far more than the other names he is currently being drafted around. If you want to take a safer veteran option who can guarantee you a fantasy floor as a Flex option, you may want to roll with Meyers in this range.
Personally, I’m a big believer in the talent. Mitchell’s current price tag means I’d rather have his potential upside than worry about his weekly floor as the WR5 on my roster.
– Tate
Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 157.8 (89.5 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 68.3
- Receiving Yards: 774.6
- Receiving TDs: 2.0
Even with reduced passing volume this season, the offense should be more efficient with Richardson. Downs is the favorite to be second in targets behind Pittman. Combined with historical precedent that sophomore WRs are very good investments, there’s reasonable upside here.
At the time of this writing, Downs’ ADP sat at WR72, No. 235 overall. However, his stock is volatile due to the high ankle sprain he sustained in the first week of August.
The initial estimate is that Downs will miss about a month. That puts him tentatively on schedule to make it back for Week 1. At worst, he should only miss the first week or two of the season.
However, as we’ve seen in the past, high ankle sprains are very debilitating injuries. They actually take up to 4-6 months to fully heal; players return in 4-6 weeks because that’s when they are recovered enough to play. But the injury lingers and it often impacts their productivity.
While this has me less bullish on Downs, if you draft him, he’ll be the last wide receiver on your bench. The opportunity cost could not be lower.
It’s difficult to see Downs’ upside much higher than that of a WR3/4. However, it’s also difficult to see many WRs going around Downs’ ADP or later with the potential to be much better. Top-36 production from a player drafted outside the top 60 at his position is certainly worth drafting. I think all of us would sign up for that right now from any of our late-round picks.
I have Downs ranked as my WR53. I like to draft young players, especially rookies and sophomores. Even with the injury, Downs is absolutely worth considering in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
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