It has been more than a month since the Indianapolis Colts last won a game, and their postseason outlook looks grim. The situation worsened further after quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury, leaving Indianapolis in survival mode down the stretch.
While 44-year-old Philip Rivers has shown he can still be a capable starter, the Colts face a daunting remaining schedule and now require near-perfect results and significant outside help to keep their playoff hopes alive.
What Are The Colts’ Playoff Chances?
At one point this season, the Colts looked like a legitimate contender, boasting one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history. However, the turning point may have come in Week 14, when the team lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles injury.
Since then, the Colts’ postseason outlook has steadily deteriorated. Indianapolis put forth a valiant effort in Week 15 behind Philip Rivers, but the loss marked their fourth straight defeat. They then suffered another loss in Week 16, this time to the San Francisco 49ers. At 8–7, the Colts remain mathematically alive, though their margin for error is razor-thin.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after their loss in Week 16, the Colts now have a 3.70% chance of making the playoffs and can no longer win the division.
BRR IT’S COLD IN HERE ❄️
đź“ş: ESPN
NFL+// https://t.co/Zkva0Y3QRR pic.twitter.com/2Sj6D2mo36— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 23, 2025
With Houston and Jacksonville also battling for the AFC South, here’s how the Colts’ playoff and division odds would have shifted based on different Week 16 outcomes:
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 23.4%
- Division Odds: 2.3%
If Houston Loses AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 12%
- Division Odds: 2%
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 29%
- Division Odds: 7.4%
If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 10.2%
- Division Odds: 1.4%
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If Houston Wins AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 6.9%
- Division Odds: 0%
If Houston Loses AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Loses:
- Playoff Odds: 39.3%
- Division Odds: 16.2%
If Houston Loses AND Indianapolis Wins AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 34.9%
- Division Odds: 4.9%
If Houston Loses AND Indianapolis Loses AND Jacksonville Wins:
- Playoff Odds: 10.1%
- Division Odds: 0%
Unfortunately for the Colts, both the Texans and Jaguars emerged victorious in Week 16. They now need a miracle to make the playoffs.
While the Colts technically remain alive in the playoff picture, their path to the postseason is extremely narrow. To reach the postseason, Indianapolis must win out and receive help from the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17, as they will face Houston.
