Colts’ Playoff Scenarios Week 15: Can Indianapolis Still Make the Postseason or AFC South?

The Indianapolis Colts were expected to dominate the AFC South this season. However, quarterback Daniel Jones’s sudden injury, combined with the resurgence of other teams, has turned the tables. Indy isn’t in the driving seat anymore and now faces an uphill climb to stay alive in the playoff race.

What Are The Colts’ Playoff Chances?

At one point, the most prolific offense in NFL history seemed enough for the Colts to invest two first-round picks into a trade to bring in Sauce Gardner. Looking back to Week 14, the loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars may have effectively handicapped them for the remainder of the season.

Not only were they blown out in the game, but an Achilles injury to Jones ended his season immediately. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ hopes may have sunk with them despite signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers.

The Colts put forth a valiant effort in Week 15 despite suffering an 18-16 loss to a tough Seattle Seahawks team. They deserve credit for playing without Jones and Gardner, who is out for multiple weeks with a calf injury. After their fourth straight loss, they’re sitting at 8-6, which keeps them in the playoff hunt, but the outlook is getting murky.

But the PFSN’s Playoff Predictor is still giving them some hope.

The Colts entered the week with a 42.0% chance of making the playoffs, an 8.5% chance of winning the AFC South, and a 1.5% of winning the Super Bowl. The loss, along with wins by the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, has impacted those odds significantly. Indianapolis now has a 27.9% chance of reaching the postseason and just a 4.3% chance of winning the division.

For comparison, if the Colts defeated Seattle, their odds would’ve jumped up to a 57.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.4% chance of grabbing the AFC South crown.

The Jaguars are atop the division at 10-4. They currently have a 56.5% chance of winning the division and a 97.4% of making the playoffs. The Texans have a 39.2% chance of winning the South and a 93.6% chance of reaching the postseason.

If the playoffs began today, the Colts would be the first team out in the AFC. The good news is there’s still football left to be played.

Colts’ Remaining Fixtures

The Colts have these games left on their schedule:

• Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
• Week 17: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 18: at Houston Texans

The Colts entered Week 15 with the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric.

With both Jones and Anthony Richardson injured, it appears that Rivers has shown enough to be the starter for the remainder of the season, and it will be intriguing to see how he performs down the stretch. However, with Indianapolis facing playoff contenders the rest of the way, the path to the postseason is extremely difficult.

Unless Rivers can engineer a late-season miracle, the Colts may already need to shift their focus to rebuilding for next year and securing a contract extension for Jones.