We’re already nearing the midway point of the college football season, and we’re back at it again with our early look at the Week 6 odds, picks, and predictions. Sitting two games under .500 with a couple of bad beats in our pockets, the hope this week was to find early line value and get in ahead of the curve.
Week 6 College Football Predictions, Picks, and Odds
The early lines for Week 6 are set and accurate as of Tuesday [October 5] at 11 AM ET. Here are the week’s matchups with our picks and predictions below.
Thursday
- Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State (+19)
- Houston @ Tulane (+6)
Friday
- Temple @ Cincinnati (-29)
- Charlotte @ FIU (+3.5)
- Stanford @ Arizona State (-11)
Saturday
- Maryland @ Ohio State (-21)
- Michigan State @ Rutgers (+5)
- Oklahoma @ Texas (+3.5)
- South Carolina @ Tennessee (-10.5)
- Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-5.5)
- Northern Illinois @ Toledo (-12.5)
- Akron @ Bowling Green (-14.5)
- West Virginia @ Baylor (-3)
- Georgia Tech @ Duke (+3.5)
- Vanderbilt @ Florida (-38)
- Old Dominion @ Marshall (-20.5)
- Virginia @ Louisville (-2)
- Georgia @ Auburn (+14.5)
- Wisconsin @ Illinois (+10)
- Florida State @ North Carolina (-17.5)
- Middle Tennessee @ Liberty (-19.5)
- Boise State @ BYU (-5)
- Wake Forest @ Syracuse (+6.5)
- Ball State @ Western Michigan (-11)
- UConn @ UMass (+3.5)
- Florida Atlantic @ UAB (-4)
- San Jose State @ Colorado State (-2)
- Central Michigan @ Ohio (+6)
- Miami OH @ Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
- Penn State @ Iowa (-2.5)
- North Texas @ Missouri (-19)
- Oregon State @ Washington State (+3.5)
- East Carolina @ UCF (-10.5)
- UTSA @ Western Kentucky (-3.5)
- TCU @ Texas Tech (+1.5)
- Wyoming @ Air Force (-6)
- Buffalo @ Kent State (-5.5)
- Georgia Southern @ Troy (-4.5)
- UTEP @ Southern Mississippi (+2.5)
- South Alabama @ Texas State (+3.5)
- Michigan @ Nebraska (+2.5)
- Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech (+1)
- LSU @ Kentucky (-3)
- Alabama @ Texas A&M (+17.5)
- Georgia State @ UL-Monroe (+16)
- Utah @ USC (-3)
- New Mexico @ San Diego State (-19.5)
- Memphis @ Tulsa (-3.5)
- UCLA @ Arizona (+16)
- New Mexico State @ Nevada (-31.5)
Early Week 6 College Football Picks and Predictions
Let’s break down some of my favorite early lines for Week 6.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-5.5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 12 PM ET
How quickly we forget how dominant Arkansas was prior to their meeting with Georgia. However, given how exposed the Razorbacks’ offense was last Saturday, they seem to have reached their proverbial ceiling. Not only did Georgia stymie the Arkansas rushing attack, but they also figured out a way to stop Treylon Burks at wide receiver.
Ole Miss doesn’t quite have the same defensive prowess as Georgia, but they also are more than capable of stopping No. 1 receivers:
- Louisville’s Justin Marshall: 1 reception, 8 yards
- Austin Peay’s DJ Render: 9 receptions, 43 yards
- Tulane’s Deuce Watts: 2 receptions, 51 yards
- Alabama’s John Metchie III: 3 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD
The first touchdown they allowed to a No. 1 wide receiver came at the hands of Alabama, but they largely covered Metchie all game long. Ole Miss won’t have to contend with a future first-round running back in this contest either. The Rebels have the recipe to get back into the win column in a big way.
Boise State @ BYU (-5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 3:30 PM ET
The Broncos simply ran out of gas last week against Nevada. They had something going on offense late in the game, but depth concerns and conditioning were clearly an issue for them. That being said, heading to high-altitude Provo certainly poses an issue for Boise State this weekend.
Boise State also has a problem with its offensive line. They lack playmakers on the OL for the first time in what feels like a decade. Expect big days from the BYU pass-rushers (as well as linebacker Payton Wilgar on blitz packages).
Also posing issues this weekend is BYU RB Tyler Allgeier. Boise State has allowed 100 or more yards to one running back in four of five games this season:
- UCF’s Isaiah Bowser: 32 carries, 170 yards, 1 TD
- UTEP’s Ronald Awatt: 15 carries, 44 yards
- Oklahoma State’s Jaylen Warren: 32 carries, 218 yards, 2 TDs
- Utah State’s Calvin Tyler Jr.: 19 carries, 120 yards
- Nevada’s Toa Tua: 12 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs
Not to mention, Allgeier is fresh off a PFN Team of the Week performance that saw him run for 218 and 3 scores against Utah State. Allgeier also ran for 123 yards and 2 scores against the Broncos last year.
Wake Forest @ Syracuse (+6.5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 3:30 PM ET
The Demon Deacons are on a hot streak. They’ve scored no fewer than 35 points in a game this season while limiting all but Louisville to 16 points or less on defense. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is playing the best football of his career, but the biggest discrepancy between these two teams lies on defense.
Syracuse hasn’t been able to stop much on defense. There have been sporadic moments of brilliance like Darian Chestnut’s impressive interception on a screen pass last week. But there have been far too many lapses. Syracuse has allowed 7 touchdowns through the air compared to just 2 picks.
Hartman is reading the middle of the field incredibly well this season, and the Orange don’t have anyone patrolling the middle that should be able to stop him.
UConn @ UMass (+3.5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 3:30 PM ET
This is the battle everyone, er, I mean no one, had penciled in on their calendar to start the year. Now, entering Week 6, no one, er, I mean everyone, has as a must-watch game this weekend.
Despite their finest effort on Saturday night, UConn couldn’t get off the proverbial schneid against Vanderbilt. They also lost QB Tyler Phommachanh indefinitely. That being said, UMass has presented even less of a challenge to their opponents this season.
There is no pick, prediction, or even glimmer of what to do (yet) with this line. This is just to set the stage between winless teams hungrier than ever for their first wins in years. UMass hasn’t won a game since September 29, 2019. UConn hasn’t won since they beat UMass on October 26, 2019.
One of them has to get a victory — right?
UTSA @ Western Kentucky (-3.5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 7 PM ET
The Roadrunners are undefeated for a reason. They weathered a storm that was going to Memphis for a battle of undefeated teams. After handling themselves against UNLV, they now travel to Bowling Green, Kentucky, for a battle with Western. Let it be known — the Hilltoppers are actually bigger favorites than Memphis was for their matchup against UTSA.
That’s largely in part to their fast-paced, high-octane offense led by Bailey Zappe. Making matters worse for the Roadrunners is the fact that they’ve allowed 1,136 passing yards and 8 passing touchdowns this year. Even more striking, they’ve now allowed at least 300 passing yards in back-to-back games.
UTSA will have to rely on its coverage unit that includes All-American candidates in S Rashad Wisdom and CB Tariq Woolen, the latter of whom just grabbed his first interception of the season against UNLV.
Georgia Southern @ Troy (-4.5)
Time: Saturday, October 9, 7 PM ET
The Georgia Southern program is clearly in shambles and doesn’t have an answer for much this year. They also don’t have a solution for Troy QB Taylor Powell. The record for the Trojans may not indicate it, but they’ve largely outplayed their opponents this season.
Troy’s defense is tailormade to stop the run, but Georgia Southern must succeed on the ground in order to win. Only Liberty’s Malik Willis has been able to surpass 100 yards against Troy in non-garbage-time situations. Fortunately for the Trojans, no Georgia Southern player is quite like Willis.
