The Chicago Bears will face the Detroit Lions in Week 13. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Cole Kmet.
Is Cole Kmet Playing in Week 13?
Kmet is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play on Thursday.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bears’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Cole Kmet in Week 13?
Settle down, people.
We see these random spikes from Cole Kmet every so often and only the strong fantasy managers avoid the temptation. If you’re not familiar with his work …
- Weeks 4-5, 2023: 12 catches for 127 yards and three TDs
- The next two games: Three targets on 48 routes for nine yards
- Weeks 8-9, 2023: 16 catches for 134 yards and two TDs
- The next three games: No more than 45 yards in any game, zero TDs
- Week 3, 2024: 10 catches for 97 yards and a TD
- The next two games: Seven targets on 48 routes for 91 yards
- Week 6, 2024: Five catches for 70 yards and two TDs
- The next three games: Five targets on 92 routes for 27 yards
Kmet was the beneficiary of a high-volume game from Caleb Williams (47 attempts; seven games before: 29.6 attempts per game) — a 21.3% target share produces far less impressive numbers if the attempt count is closer to the norm.
I’ll listen to your argument that Chicago is likely to be forced to abandon the run this week as a double-digit underdog. That’s fair, but are you confident in Kmet as a target earner? I’m not. His on-field target share in Weeks 8-11 was 5.7%, a rate that ranks well below any option that you’re even remotely considering.
At best, we are discussing the fourth-best option in the passing game under the tutelage of a sporadic rookie against a rapidly improving defense. If that’s the profile you want to chase, go for it — just don’t blame me if it doesn’t work out. Kmet is my TE20 for Week 13.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cole Kmet’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 13
As of Thursday morning, Kmet is projected to score 7.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.9 receptions for 30.8 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the 49ers' Defense
The continued decline of the San Francisco 49ers' defense this season compared to the last two is a concern. Having been a top-seven unit each year between 2019 and 2022, they ranked 10th last year and have slipped further this season.
The first four years were with Saleh and Ryans as San Francisco's DCs, with Steve Wilks on board for one season in 2023 and Nick Sorensen taking over the role in 2024.
The run defense has been a concern all season, and both the Bills and Packers have exploited it in the past two weeks. San Francisco's pass defense has been fine, but just being fine when working alongside a below-average run defense isn't enough to compensate.
The biggest concern this season has been continued struggles on third down (44.2%; 26th) and inside the red zone (70.7%; 31st). That has left the 49ers struggling to stop drives and points, leaving them reliant on their pass rush to get after opposing quarterbacks and force turnovers (12.1%; 10th). That element has worked well, but Nick Bosa's injury situation is a major concern.
We can somewhat give San Francisco a pass for struggling in what will be very alien conditions to them as a warm-weather team. Where this does present a warning sign is if the 49ers make the playoffs and have to travel to the likes of Green Bay or Philadelphia, where they could encounter similar conditions in January.
Like most warm-weather teams, this is an area they have to improve, but it's a tough skill to practice.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Cole Kmet’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:40 AM ET on Sunday, December 8. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 14 TE PPR Rankings
1) Brock Bowers | LV (at TB)
2) Trey McBride | ARI (vs. SEA)
3) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. LAC)
4) George Kittle | SF (vs. CHI)
5) Jonnu Smith | MIA (vs. NYJ)
6) Evan Engram | JAX (at TEN)
7) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. ATL)
8) David Njoku | CLE (at PIT)
9) Will Dissly | LAC (at KC)
10) Sam LaPorta | DET (at GB)
11) Tucker Kraft | GB (vs. DET)
12) Mike Gesicki | CIN (at DAL)
13) Cade Otton | TB (vs. LV)
14) Kyle Pitts | ATL (at MIN)
15) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs. CLE)
16) Cole Kmet | CHI (at SF)
17) Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs. CIN)
18) Luke Schoonmaker | DAL (vs. CIN)
19) Noah Gray | KC (vs. LAC)
20) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN (vs. JAX)
21) Dawson Knox | BUF (at LAR)
22) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at LAR)
23) Noah Fant | SEA (at ARI)
24) Juwan Johnson | NO (at NYG)
25) Darnell Washington | PIT (vs. CLE)
26) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (at CAR)
27) Tyler Conklin | NYJ (at MIA)
28) Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs. PHI)
29) Tommy Tremble | CAR (vs. PHI)
30) Foster Moreau | NO (at NYG)
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers Trends
Chicago Bears
Team: Chicago is 0-6 since their bye, losing to a divisional foe in each of the past three weeks (cumulative score in those games: 73-66).
QB: Caleb Williams threw a pair of deep touchdown passes last week, his first since Week 6, but don’t let that mask the fact that 12 of his other 14 deep attempts hit the turf.
Offense: Over the past three weeks, the Bears have converted 45.8% of their third downs (first 10 weeks: 28.7%).
Defense: The Bears blitzed 38.9% of the time on Thursday, a stark difference from their season rate of 24% and even further ahead of the direction they were headed entering Week 13 (Weeks 11 and 12 were both under 16%).
Fantasy: The Keenan Allen profile is changing. It gave you what you needed last week (5-73-2), but be careful in assuming that his increased reliance on deep passes recently is going to result in consistent production.
Weeks 10-11: 103 total air yards
Weeks 12-13: 119.1 air yards per game
Betting: Eight straight games that the Bears have played on long rest have gone under the total.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: This is San Francisco's first of two straight at home, though that might not be as comforting as it sounds. They are 1-3 over their past four home games despite holding a +22 point differential through the first three quarters of those games (-30 in the fourth quarter).
QB: Brock Purdy’s yards per third down attempt went down from 8.8 a season ago to 6.8 this year (Sunday in Buffalo: 4.2).
Offense: The 49ers have converted just three-of-10 third down attempts in consecutive games (season prior: 45.4% conversion rate).
Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Seahawks, Packers, and Bills reached the end zone 11 times against San Francisco — they walked away from those drives with 11 touchdowns.
Fantasy: Jordan Mason has produced 12.2% over PPR expectations for his career. He is one of two healthy backs (minimum 100 rush attempts), picking up 10+ yards on 15% of his carries this season (other: Jahmyr Gibbs).
Betting: Three of the 49ers’ past four home games have seen them both fail to cover and the under to come through.