In the aftermath of Aaron Jones’ MCL sprain injury that is expected to keep him out 1-2 weeks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be poised to return from his MCL sprain in Week 11. Of course, CEH has not played since getting knocked out of his Week 5 matchup against the Bills. Not all injury recovery timeframes are the same. So, what can we expect from Edwards-Helaire in fantasy football if he returns for this weekend’s showdown against the Cowboys?
What was Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy value before his injury?
One of the most-hyped fantasy rookies in the summer of 2020, Edwards-Helaire has enjoyed a solid start to his NFL career. He’s averaging a healthy 4.5 yards per carry on 246 rushing attempts and 44 receptions across 18 games, along with 7 TDs. He has been the lead back in a high-powered offense — not a bad spot to be in.
On a macro level, there’s nothing fantasy managers can complain about. He was a back-end RB2 in 13 games last season. And after a slow start this year, he racked up back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts before going down on October 10. Despite losing a couple of fumbles this year, the Chiefs stuck with him, which is the mark of a player who has earned the trust of his coaches.
But on a micro level, there were warning signs. And these warning signs prompted me right after CEH’s injury to trade him, Darrel Williams, and Jaylen Waddle for CeeDee Lamb, Mike Davis, and Jerick McKinnon. The underperforming Lamb was the prize, of course.
I saw the writing on the wall with Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy outlook. As a result, I packaged him and Williams in the belief that when the Chiefs’ backfield returned to full health, it would be a messy and unpredictable fantasy situation.
Can fantasy managers trust CEH if he returns in Week 11?
This brings us to the repercussions of these early warning signs. Is Edwards-Helaire still the Chiefs’ lead back? In five starts since he (temporarily) took over this backfield, Williams has averaged 17.8 fantasy points per contest. Two of the top 24 RB fantasy outputs since Week 6 belong to him.
Now, in fairness, CEH’s value has been capped by the presence of Williams. Likewise, Williams’ upside has been capped by Derrick Gore, though Gore has been less productive. So, in some ways, comparing Williams’ points as a high-usage bell cow versus CEH’s early usage doesn’t tell the whole story.
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But Williams’ heavy involvement in the passing game cannot be ignored, nor can his work near the goal line. Williams has poached multiple CEH-scoring opportunities.
It remains to be seen whether Edwards-Helaire returns this week. It also remains to be seen if he’ll return as the lead back. Right now, both answers are trending toward yes. But if I were advising fantasy managers rostering one or both of these RBs, I would caution that neither has a good shot at RB2+ production this week. Furthermore, Edwards-Helaire might not even outscore Williams the rest of the season. An even split is as likely as ever.
