The Cleveland Browns have made the playoffs just once over the past two decades, with their most recent appearance coming in 2020. Can Kevin Stefanski lead them back to the postseason in 2023?
The Browns have made numerous improvements over the offseason and should benefit from a full year of Deshaun Watson under center. Meanwhile, they also have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. However, Cleveland’s Super Bowl odds still sit at just +3500.
Can the Browns improve after finishing with a 7-10 record last season? In this betting preview, we break down Cleveland’s betting lines, give out a best bet, and more.
Take advantage of one of these sportsbook offers below if you’re getting into the market of Browns futures!
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Cleveland Browns Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +3500
Want to bet on the Browns to win the Super Bowl? Place your wager on the widget below.
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AFC Odds: +1800
AFC North Odds: +380
Win Total: 9.5 (Over +115/Under -135)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +115/-135
Cleveland Browns Offense
Watson only played in six games a season ago after returning from an 11-game suspension, and the results were not pretty, especially compared to how Jacoby Brissett performed in Watson’s absence. Over the final six weeks of the year, Watson ranked just 24th among qualifying quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt and 26th in EPA per dropback.
A complete offseason in Stefanski’s offense might be able to help Watson get back to his 2021 Texans form when he led the league in passing yards and yards per attempt while making his third consecutive Pro Bowl.
The Browns have also given Watson additional weapons. Cleveland acquired Elijah Moore via a trade with the New York Jets, then used a third-round pick on Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman. Along with holdovers Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and tight end David Njoku, Watson has a solid group of pass-catching talent available to him.
Meanwhile, the Browns boast one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and arguably the most talented pure runner in Nick Chubb. With Kareem Hunt no longer around, Chubb could top 300 carries for the second straight season and contend for the league lead in rushing attempts.
Cleveland Browns Defense
Cleveland’s defense struggled in 2022, ranking 20th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive DVOA. The unit’s poor performance led to the ouster of defensive coordinator Joe Woods, who longtime NFL DC Jim Schwartz replaced.
The Browns focused more of their offseason resources on buoying their defensive line. Myles Garrett remains in place as one of the NFL’s most talented defenders, but Cleveland added edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo and defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris, all of whom should help create a stouter front.
Cleveland will return an above-average cornerback group that includes Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson, but they brought in former Chiefs safety Juan Thornhill to play alongside Grant Delpit in the back end. Veteran defensive back Rodney McLeod is also around for depth at safety.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Browns are 0-5 ATS following a road win since the beginning of 2021, per Inside Edge. That’s especially noteworthy when you consider that Cleveland has just one road game against a team with a projected win total of over nine.
Best Bet for the Browns in 2023
Robinson: Not only has Garrett never won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award, but he never received a single vote for DPOY until 2022.
This is the year he brings home the trophy.
Garrett has posted 16 sacks in back-to-back campaigns but still has room to ascend. Last season, Garrett finished with 73 pressures (fifth-most in the league), but no other Browns edge rusher posted more than 30. That imbalance led to Garrett being double-teamed at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Double team rate at Edge (x) by pass rush win rate at Edge (y) for the 2022 NFL season.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/PDSa4L5xTs
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 13, 2023
Now that Cleveland has fortified its edge rush with Smith and Okoronkwo and added more threats along the interior, opposing offensive lines won’t be able to throw as much additional attention Garrett’s way.
Plus, Schwartz’s new scheme should deploy more of an attack-based front than Woods’ did. Schwartz will use multiple stunts, twists, and other games to get the most advantageous looks for his up-front defenders.
If Garrett can maintain a similar pass-rush win rate while seeing more fruitful matchups on the edge, and the Browns take a leap forward to become a contending team, he could collect his first DPOY trophy. We’ll take our chances on Garrett at +750 for DPOY.
Like Robinson’s best bet for the Browns this season? Place your wager on the widget below.
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