The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for their fourth win in their last five and second in a row on the road when they meet the San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium on Sunday.
Here is everything you need to know to get ready.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Preview
This game looked like it could be a Super Bowl LVIII preview when the season began, with both teams coming off back-to-back trips to their respective conference championship games.
But a slow 1-3 start for the Bengals and surprising San Francisco stumble with back-to-back losses have both teams answering questions about whether they are as good as people initially thought.
“When your back’s against the wall, and you gotta come out fighting; that’s when we are plat our best.”
Joe Burrow thinks his #Bengals are ready to go post bye week.
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This is the sort of prove-it game that can propel both teams into November, which is when the Bengals have taken off in each of the last two seasons.
The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites and looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since early in the 2021 season.
Here are five key stats from Inside Edge that could go a long way in determining who ends up on top Sunday night.
Five Bengals-49ers Stats From Inside Edge
- Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has a 60.4 passer rating in late and close games this season — seventh-worst among qualifying quarterbacks.
- The 49ers have allowed a passer rating of 48.7 in close and late games this season — the best in the NFL.
Analysis: If the Bengals are going to win, this game figures to be close late. Only three teams have scored fewer fourth-quarter points than the Bengals. On the other hand, the 49ers lead the league with 12 fourth-quarter points allowed, almost half as many as the next-best team, the Jets (22).
MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
Burrow’s overall fourth-quarter passer rating has been over 100 in his first three seasons — 100.3 in 2020, 101.0 in 2021, and 115.3 in 2022. That number has dropped to 72.0 this year. His yards per attempt have seen a similar dip, going from 7.0 in 2020, 8.8 in 2021, and 7.9 last year to just 4.2 this year.
That being said, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy’s passer rating in late and close games this year is even worse than Burrow’s. Purdy’s 49.9 ranks 29th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks.
- San Francisco running backs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact this season – fourth-best in the league.
- The Bengals allow 1.8 yards after contact – fifth-worst in the league.
Analysis: Missed tackles have been an ongoing — and uncharacteristic — issue for the Bengals this season, and the running game is the foundation of the 49ers offense. This will be a big game for Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson, physically and comparatively. San Francisco’s Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are arguably the best linebacker tandem in the league, and Pratt and Wilson will have a chance to prove they belong in that conversation as well.
- San Francisco’s George Kittle has averaged 7.8 fantasy points per game since Week 18 last year — fourth-best among league tight ends.
- The Bengals have allowed an average of 9.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends in that span — second-worst in the league.
Analysis: The Bengals have allowed at least five catches to tight ends in every game this season, and tight ends have found the end zone in four of six contests. Safety Dax Hill is in his first season as the primary coverage man against tight ends, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo said the 2022 first-round pick is growing into the role.
“He’s held his own,” Anarumo said. “That’s a tough job for any of those cover guys. They’re gonna win some and lose some, and we’re winning more than we lose.”
In the 2021 game against the Bengals, Kittle caught 13 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets.
- The Bengals have gone three and out on 38.2% of their drives in the first half this season — the worst in the league.
- The 49ers have forced three-and-outs on 33.3% of opponent drives in the first half this season — third-best in the NFL.
Analysis: This illustrates why everyone from head coach Zac Taylor to offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to quarterback Joe Burrow and even wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase earlier this week has been hammering home the idea of getting into a rhythm. Three and outs kill that process.
MORE: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings
“There’s a completion rhythm that starts to happen, and all of a sudden, it’s a first down, it’s 2nd-and-2, 1st-and-10, 1st-and-10, 2nd-and-3,” Callahan said. “That part of the rhythm is when we’re at our best. Because Joe is an incredible rhythm-style passer. He does a great job distributing the ball when he needs to. He’s on time, he’s accurate.
“And then as soon as you feel like you’ve had a little bit of a rhythm, then we’ve been able to hit a shot.”
While there have been more than three and outs than the Bengals would like in each game this season, one reason they are buried in last is what happened in the first two weeks of the season, when they went three and out on an incredible 65% of their first-half drives.
The 49ers, by contrast, have gone three and out on just 8.2% of their drives in the first half, which is the second-best mark in the league behind the Chiefs (7.9).
- The 49ers are 10-2 against the spread at home since the start of the 2022 season — the best in the NFL.
Analysis: The points spread has been yo-yoing all week with the issue of Brock Purdy’s concussion, dropping it from 5.5 to 3.5, followed by news Saturday that the San Francisco quarterback had cleared protocol, returning the number to 5.5.
San Francisco’s 10-2 ATS record at home since the start of last season includes eight consecutive covers, three of which have been double-digit spreads.
San Francisco also is 11-1 at home straight up during the span.
But this is a case of good on good. The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. And going back to 2021, they have covered the spread in five consecutive road games in which they were underdogs.
Bengals vs. 49ers Predictions
- David Bearman: 49ers
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Dalton Miller: Bengals
- Jay Morrison: Bengals
- Dallas Robinson: 49ers
For all of PFN’s Week 8 NFL predictions, we have you covered.
