Things could not have worked out any better for the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, with their 27-24 overtime win against the Minnesota Vikings being followed by losses by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, vaulting them from the No. 10 spot in the AFC to No. 6.
But the opposite happened Sunday, with nearly every game involving AFC Wild Card hopefuls going against the Bengals’ rooting interests.
None of those results had any impact on where the Bengals currently stand, as they remain sixth in the conference standings heading into Saturday’s game at Pittsburgh. But wins by the Browns, Bills, and Texans on Sunday could have ramifications at the conclusion of Week 18.
Which Week 16 Games Impact the Bengals’ Playoff Chances?
The one thing we know for certain after Week 15 is that the Bengals will not be winning a third consecutive AFC North Division title. The Ravens eliminated them with a 23-7 win against the Jaguars on Sunday night.
But that game actually worked in the Bengals’ favor, as the odds of winning the division were minuscule anyway because they should be rooting for the Texans to win the AFC South instead of the Jaguars.
The Texans have the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Bengals via their 30-27 win in Week 10, while the Bengals have head-to-head victories against both the Jaguars and Colts after beating those teams in Week 13 and 14, respectively.
There is a three-way tie atop the AFC South with the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans all 8-6. One team will win it, and the other two will join a deep pool of Wild Card candidates that includes the Browns (9-5), Bengals (8-6), Colts (8-6), Texans (8-6), Bills (8-6), Steelers (7-7) and Broncos (7-7).
Energy all week‼️ pic.twitter.com/bemL50fwo2
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals)
The Bengals need losses by the Browns and Texans to control their own fate, but those two teams play Sunday in Houston.
It’s one of those games the Bengals can feel good about regardless of the outcome. A Bengals win and Browns loss would leave both teams 9-6, and it would enhance the Texans’ chances of winning the AFC South.
A Cleveland win would keep the Browns ahead of the Bengals, but it would drop Houston a game behind Cincinnati and render moot that Week 10 head-to-head meeting if the Bengals can stay one game ahead.
For a short-term look, here are the Week 16 games and which teams Bengals fans should be rooting for, in order of importance.
First, though, it’s important to note that the Bengals do not control their own destiny yet. There are a couple of scenarios where they could win out to finish 11-6 and still not make the playoffs.
MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
That’s why knowing the rooting interests can be important.
Here they are:
- Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7): Patriots
- Jaguars (8-6) at Buccaneers (7-7): Buccaneers
- Bills (8-6) at Chargers (5-9): Chargers
- Browns (9-5) at Texans (8-6): Texans
- Colts (8-6) at Falcons (6-8): Falcons
- Raiders (6-8) at Chiefs (9-5): Raiders
The Broncos pose the biggest threat to the Bengals because two teams do not play this year, and if the Bengals end up in a multi-team tiebreaker where they are undefeated against the other teams, but Denver is also involved, head-to-head is not applicable.
A team has to have beaten all of the other teams — or lost to all of the other teams — involved in the tie for head-to-head to be used.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The next tiebreaker is conference record, where the Bengals currently have the worst mark (3-6) of any team yet to be eliminated from contention.
Bengals fans also should be big Buccaneers fans this weekend. Not only could the Bengals move ahead of the Jaguars with a win and a Tampa Bay win, but a Jacksonville loss also would help Houston’s chances of winning the AFC South.
The Chargers are next on the list because while the Bengals have the head-to-head edge on Buffalo and would win a two-way tie, having a hot Bills team fall a game behind would be ideal.
The Browns-Texans game, as mentioned earlier, has appeal on both sides.
The Falcons-Colts choice is obvious.
The Chiefs are in play here for reasons similar to those that exist in the AFC South. If the Broncos can win the AFC West, that would remove that possible tiebreaker landmine. Plus, the Bengals have a Week 17 game at Kansas City and could score another head-to-head win against another Wild Card team if Denver prevails.
Here are the remaining games for the teams in contention, ranked by hardest strength of schedule to easiest:
- Steelers (7-7): vs. Bengals (8-6), at Seahawks (6-7*), at Ravens (11-3) – .610
- Bengals (8-6): at Steelers (7-7), at Chiefs (9-5), vs. Browns (9-5) – .595
- Texans (8-6): vs. Browns (9-5), vs. Titans (5-9), at Colts (8-6) – .524
- Browns (9-5): at Texans (8-6), vs. Jets (5-9), at Bengals (8-6) – .500
- Colts (8-6): at Falcons (6-8), vs. Raiders (6-8), vs. Texans (8-6) – .476
- Chiefs (9-5): vs. Raiders (6-8), vs. Bengals (8-6), at Chargers (5-9) – .452
- Bills (8-6): at Chargers (5-9), vs. Patriots (3-11), at Dolphins (10-4) – .429
- Broncos (7-7): vs. Patriots (3-11), vs. Chargers (5-9), at Raiders (6-8) – .333
- Jaguars (8-6): at Buccaneers (7-7), vs. Panthers (2-12), at Titans (5-9)– .333
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