We saw Christian Watson breakout, and now he is an intriguing waiver wire option for fantasy football managers in Week 11. With Watson seemingly having breathed some life into the Green Bay Packers receiver group, can he continue that run in the coming weeks, or was this just a flash in the pan?
Let’s take a look at what we have seen from Watson so far this season and whether fantasy managers should invest in him for their roster or let someone else take that jump.
Is Christian Watson a Player To Chase on the Week 11 Waiver Wire?
Watson’s stat line from last week is simply incredible. He took four receptions for 107 yards and three touchdowns. Included in that were a couple of extremely big plays, accounting for more than 20 of his fantasy points this week in all formats.
The first of those touchdowns was 58 yards, and the second was 39 yards. There have been just 62 receiving touchdowns on plays of 35 yards or more this season. When you put that into the context of 150 games having been played this season, it shows how rare it is. There has been an average of one 35-plus-yard touchdown every 2.42 games.
MORE: Full Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets
With a 41% chance of a single 35-plus yard touchdown in one game, having two is even rarer. Assuming the two events are independent, the chances of having two 35-plus-yard touchdowns in a single game are 16.8%. That emphasizes how rare it is to have a day like Watson had. Additionally, in the past 23 seasons, there have been just 167 three-receiving touchdown performances.
Therefore, the focus needs to be on whether Watson can still provide fantasy value without relying on chunk plays that are less common than one in every two games. That is where things start to get a lot tougher with Watson.
Is Watson Set To Have Regular Playing Time Going Forward?
The Week 10 game against the Dallas Cowboys was just Watson’s second of the season with more than a 50% offensive snap share. He has also missed three games this season due to a hamstring issue that recurred. That recurring hamstring issue does cause some concerns going forward, but it is not something that is easily predictable week-to-week.
The shape of the Packers’ receiving group is also tough to judge. We saw Watson start this week alongside Allen Lazard, with Romeo Doubs held out due to an ankle injury. Lazard had a 98% snap share, Watson was at 84%, with Sammy Watkins, Samori Toure, and Amari Rodgers splitting snaps as the third WR.
Doubs’ injury appears set to have him out for at least another week and maybe longer. Meanwhile, Watkins is getting further away from his return from the IR. Last week, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said that Watkins is still dealing with some lumps and bumps but should continue to see more work as he gets away from the injury.
On top of all that, veteran pass catcher Randall Cobb is on the path to return. Therefore, this WR group is likely only going to continue to be complicated. While Watson may have earned himself some runway with his breakout performance, it certainly should not mean he is going to see heavy usage going forward.
MORE: Week 11 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
However, he could easily slot into the role that Doubs had been seeing prior to his injury. From Weeks 3 to 8, Doubs averaged 6.8 targets per game. In three of those six games, he scored double-digit fantasy points in all scoring formats. However, Doubs’ ability to produce starting value was almost entirely dependent on him finding the end zone.
If that is the case with Watson, then it could make him tough to trust in leagues where you have to set your lineup on a weekly basis. However, while Doubs is out, Watson is an intriguing weekly option in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball leagues. We saw Doubs find the end zone in 50% of the games, where his snap share topped 80%. If Watson’s first such game is anything to go by, he has the chance to see a similar pattern.
How Should You Prioritize Watson on the Week 11 Waiver Wire?
There are a lot of intriguing options at WR on the waiver wire in Week 11. Some of the top names alongside Watson this week include Parris Campbell, Kadarius Toney, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, and Zay Jones. This group splits pretty intriguingly around their potential floor and ceiling outcomes.
Watson is perhaps the headline act of the ceiling outcome, but his floor is extremely concerning, as we saw with Doubs. In between his double-digit outputs when he scored a touchdown, Doubs had three straight weeks where he failed to reach five fantasy points in half-PPR scoring.
Toney is also a boom-bust type option. In Week 10, he had 13.7 fantasy points with 57 receiving yards and a touchdown on four receptions from just five targets. The Chiefs seem keen to try and get Toney involved since he joined them ahead of the trade deadline. The Chiefs’ WR room is somewhat convoluted, but they could be without both Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster this week.
Therefore, Toney could be in line for an expanded role on the 44% snap share he has in Week 10. We saw Justin Watson take on the secondary role alongside Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week, but Toney could yet see that role grow. Therefore, Toney’s floor may actually be somewhat higher than Watson’s in the short term, but that relies on Smith-Schuster and Hardman to miss time.
Campbell saw a bounce back in value with Matt Ryan under center. In the last three games that Ryan has played, Campbell has seen a total of 32 targets at an average of 10.7 per game. He has found the end zone in each of those three games, averaging eight receptions and 67.7 receiving yards per game.
Alongside Campbell as an intriguing high-floor option is Peoples-Jones, who has seen 50 or more receiving yards in each of the last six weeks. He has averaged 6.7 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 74.3 receiving yards per game in that stretch.
The final two names are Collins and Jones. We saw Collins find the end zone with 49 yards and a touchdown from five receptions on 10 targets. He has been an intriguing fantasy option in deeper leagues this year but needs the touchdowns to reach double-digits on most scoring formats based on what we have seen. Jones has also struggled for upside but has not scored a touchdown since Week 3 and has only gone over 55 receiving yards once in that stretch.
So, where does Watson fit among all these options? Right now, he is below Campbell on my personal priority list. However, Watson and Toney are very close in second, but Toney is rostered in more than 50% of ESPN leagues, so he may not be available. If you are looking for a floor option behind Campbell, then Peoples-Jones appears to be that right now.
Therefore, depending on what you are looking for and the availability in your league changes how you prioritize these options behind Campbell. Watson is the most widely available, but he also could cost the most to add this week simply because he just had a massive performance.
To manage that demand, you need to be strict with your FAAB. While I would pay as much as 10-15% for Campbell, Peoples-Jones, Watson, and Toney all sit in the 8-10% region. Collins is an intriguing option in the 5-7% region, with Jones at the bottom of the priority list at under 5% of my FAAB.
