The NFL‘s last winless team is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags sit in the basement for a litany of reasons, but an inconsistent passing offense is near the top of that list. Consequently, the Jaguars have been a tough team to read from a fantasy football production standpoint, with flashes of upside tempered by much longer stretches of disappointment.
Entering their Week 5 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk have emerged as the top two targets in the passing game, but who is the superior fantasy option?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Should You Start Christian Kirk or Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 5?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings give Kirk the edge. His projected 12.8 PPR points include five receptions for 61 yards, while Thomas is projected for 11.1 PPR points.
But given the rookie’s superior yardage upside and the expected return of Evan Engram potentially eating into Kirk’s usage, Thomas is the better option for fantasy managers this week.
Kirk and Thomas’ Fantasy Outlook this Week
Both Kirk and Thomas have charted well by separation metrics, with both ranking among the top five wideouts in separation against man coverage by Fantasy Points Data’s charting:
Wide receivers who have created the most separation (every route is charted) vs. man coverage in 2024:
(Source: @FantasyPtsData's Average Separation Score)
1. Christian Kirk
2. Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. Rome Odunze
4. Mike Evans
5. Brian Thomas Jr.
6. Brandon Aiyuk
7. Elijah Moore… pic.twitter.com/NDvF0rl2RE— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
They co-lead the team with 17 receptions each, with Kirk leading in targets (29) but Thomas far exceeding him in yardage (275 to 169) due to a 16.2 yards-per-catch average. That ranks seventh among wide receivers with at least 15 catches this season.
Thomas is the X receiver in this system, aligning on the perimeter on 79% of his snaps this season. That bodes well for him against a Colts defense that has struggled to contain perimeter receivers this season:
Perimeter WRs have CRUSHED the Colts:
• George Pickens: 7/113/0
• Rome Odunze: 6/112/1
• Nico Collins: 6/117/0Welcome to Brian Thomas Jr. week 🚀 pic.twitter.com/6t13sEYxjI
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT)
In addition, the Colts have allowed the sixth-most yards per target (8.3) on passes outside the numbers this season. Seventeen of Thomas’ 26 targets (65%) have come outside the numbers, which also aligns with where Indy’s defense is weak.
While Thomas is a high ceiling WR2/Flex in Week 5, Kirk doesn’t quite possess the same upside with Engram likely returning. So far this season, Kirk has gobbled up the Jags’ slot usage, seeing 25 out of their 50 slot targets as a team and 14 out of their 27 receptions. Before Kirk’s season-ending groin injury last year, Engram and Kirk split a lot of the slot usage, with Engram catching 46 passes from the slot and Kirk catching 43.
The call is closer in PPR leagues compared to non-PPR leagues, as Engram will likely be eased into the mix after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. But Thomas is one of the only sources of downfield playmaking in the Jaguars’ offense this season, and his early production makes him a much more difficult option to bench.
