Chris Herndon’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Will this finally be the year that New York Jets TE Chris Herndon becomes a startable fantasy football asset? Or is 2021 simply another season where Herndon’s apparent skill will never match his fantasy outlook, and he remains undraftable at his ADP?

Chris Herndon’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Want to know what time of the year it is without a calendar? Just look around the internet for people to start poetically waxing about how this will be the year that Herndon silences the doubters. Hope is a very dangerous drug.

Coming out of his rookie season (2018), Herndon looked like a player poised to leap into the TE1 ranks for years to come. He was the TE16 in PPR formats, averaging 8.1 ppg across 16 games (12 starts). Herndon hauled in 39 of his 56 targets for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns. He was 14th in points per target (2.02) and 12th in points per reception (2.90). This was also virtually the last time anyone saw him.

In 2019, Herndon played in one game. He missed the first four due to a suspension and then injured his hamstring before returning against the New York Giants in Week 10. In that game, Herndon sustained a fractured rib that landed him on injured reserve.

He was once again caught in the tidal wave that was Adam Gase last season. Herndon caught 31 receptions on 46 targets for 287 yards and 3 TDs as the TE33 (4.6 ppg).

At this point, it’s hard to find a reason as to why Herndon will be a fourth-year breakout at TE. Connor Hughes of The Athletic reported that Herndon struggled to pick up the new coaching regime’s playbook this offseason. Furthermore, Hughes stated that fellow TEs Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin “stole a chunk of Herndon’s first-team reps at minicamp.”

Herndon is not a Robert Saleh or Mike LaFleur player. Gase drafted him. This means he must prove himself during camp if he wants to be the starter. So far, it seems Herndon’s fantasy outlook is slipping further and further away. 

Fantasy projection

Deciphering a fantasy outlook for anyone on the Jets is difficult. It is a brand new offense with a rookie head coach, after all.

I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

The most important addition, however, came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in a bit.

Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd). 

We know the Jets are going to be running The Erhardt-Perkins system. It is a system based on concepts and getting players in space. It’s also excellent at involving tight ends as primary reads. This means that despite having failed to deliver for the past two NFL seasons, Herndon likely has the best opportunity of his career in front of him. If, and I mean a big if, Herndon figures the playbook out, holds off Kroft and Griffin, and stays healthy, he could end up having a decent fantasy season. But that does not mean I am projecting that.

Herndon also faces stiff competition for touches. The Jets signed Corey Davis and Keelan Cole, then drafted Elijah Moore, who will play in the slot and operate in Herndon’s real estate. 

My early projections have Herndons seeing around 55 targets for 35-38 receptions, 390 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Chris Herndon’s ADP

According to Sleeper, Herndon is currently the TE30 with an ADP of 221.5 in PPR formats. Similarly, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Herndon is the TE29 with a 228.8 ADP.

Should you draft Chris Herndon in 2021 for fantasy?

How someone can do so little yet still have die-hard believers just as Linus believes in The Great Pumpkin is beyond me. Honestly, I applaud your commitment as it’s far longer than I ever have been able to maintain anything in my lifetime.

If you have made it this far and want to still give Herndon a shot, that’s on you. I can not sit here and recommend you draft Herndon in 2021 regardless of his ADP. 

Now, I am not saying that Herndon cannot be fantasy-relevant. I will never speak in absolutes when it comes to fantasy football. We might very well be adding his name to the list of players who have gone on to shine once they were out of the grasp of Gase. If that were to happen, Herndon would be available to scoop up off the waiver wire. But until that point, he needs to remain off your fantasy team.