If you’re playing a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 6, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Chiefs and Bills Considerations
I’m combining both teams in this section because we can’t begin to contemplate our DFS lineup without considering their combined offensive prowess. The Chiefs and Bills both have a top-four fantasy QB. Kansas City has the No. 4 RB, while Buffalo has the high-upside RB25. Buffalo has the No. 2 WR and the WR19 in points per game, while K.C. has at least three solid streamers, as well as the No. 1 TE.
The Bills also have the No. 7 kicker and No. 1 D/ST, while the Chiefs’ starting kicker (when healthy) was a top-five fantasy kicker in three of the last four years.
By my count, there are at least seven must-start players between these two clubs, plus another 8-10 reasonable streamers we might consider. Those are a lot of moving parts for a DFS lineup we haven’t even begun to construct.
So based on likely game scenarios, we’ll need to make sacrifices. Can we afford both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes? If we go only with Allen, does that mean going big with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis? Or if we go only with Mahomes, do we trust anyone besides Travis Kelce to roast Buffalo’s D?
These are the two highest-scoring teams in the league, combining for more than 62 points per game. This puts even more pressure on us (or, let’s be frank, “me”) to get this right.
We’re not talking about the Bills vs. Patriots in a snowstorm, where running backs and D/STs rule. We’re talking about a contest that might feature at least seven touchdowns and five field goals. If you think that’s high, consider that they combined for 10 TDs and three field goals when they met this past January.
As a result, we need to pin down which game script seems most likely, and then craft a lineup that most closely reflects that possibility. The winning DFS lineup probably will include at least one deviation from the norm — like a cheap James Cook or an even cheaper Skyy Moore. This seemingly wrongheaded play might prove to be the difference.
Top DFS Lineup for Chiefs vs. Bills
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
It would take something dramatic to stop me from placing Allen ($12,000 normally, $18,000 as Captain) in our Captain slot. He’s averaging 29.3 fantasy points per game. In Mahomes’ record-setting 2018 fantasy season, the Chiefs’ franchise QB averaged 26.1 fantasy points.
Allen is on pace to do what’s never been done, and it’s not even that close. Keep him front-and-center as long as 30+ points remain realistic.
While I’d like to be able to squeeze Diggs ($11,600) and Davis ($9,000) into this lineup, it would require us to start only dart throws in our other slots. So we’ll go with Diggs and will try to put that other $9,000 to good use elsewhere.
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Back to our Chiefs vs. Bills DFS lineup — I’m also recommending the now-healthy, underperforming Dawson Knox ($4,200). Might seem strange.
But his zero TDs are an anomaly. He’s on pace for only eight red-zone targets this season after finishing 10th in the league last year with 22. He’s a sneaky upside play in what should be a high-scoring game.
For the Chiefs, let’s roll with the catch-friendly Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,000) — who could be leaned on heavily if this game remains close — and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,600). MVS’ speed is a difference-maker, even against Buffalo’s otherwise strong defense.
And speaking of defense, we’ll close this out with the Bills D/ST ($3,400). Nothing flashy, but it should be good for 9+ points, and a defensive or special-teams TD is always possible.
