My Behavior Bets betting model has found good value using these Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals betting strategies based on the projected final outcome. The confidence in these outcomes allows me to significantly lower my risk while increasing the odds I turn a profit.
This NFL season, the Behavior Bets model has turned a profit of 353.1 units with a 57.36% return on investment.* For this game, I’ll be using the betting strategy of “dutching” to find profit opportunities in the game props.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model provided by Pikkit. Use code PFNBRETT at download.
Chiefs vs. Bengals Betting Strategies
The Chiefs are at home playing a Bengals team that is looking to get back to the Super Bowl in consecutive years. The Chiefs are projected to win, according to my model, by three points.
The Chiefs are home dogs, and that’s entirely due to the fact that Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a troublesome high ankle sprain that could play a major role in his ability to perform. On top of that, the Chiefs have never beaten Joe Burrow, and the team’s current streak of three straight losses to Cincinnati is currently its longest against any franchise.
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Yet, the study of team behavior indicates the Chiefs pull this one off. Bettors like me may feel the game will, in fact, be an upset victory for the Chiefs but are hamstrung by their head which tells them that Mahomes’ ankle is a big deal and that Joe Cool has had KC’s number.
This creates an uncomfortable situation for the bettor who is now stuck between an either/or situation where the risk can be quite large. For these Chiefs vs. Bengals betting strategies, I selected three of the most likely margins of victory my model projected and placed bets on each of them to help spread the risk out.
Both Teams Keep it Close
The Chiefs have the best scoring behavior in the AFC this season, which is a major part of my Chiefs vs. Bengals prediction. That said, there is a reason the Chiefs are underdogs, and the question of whether they can maintain that pace despite a limited Mahomes looms large.
After using the 3rd quarter to get that ankle figured out, in the final 10 minutes and 57 seconds of their possession time (starting with a field goal drive with 2:17 left in the 3rd quarter), the Chiefs scored 10 points — exactly at their season average scoring behavior rate.
MORE: Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction
Over at DraftKings, there are two winning margins that, based on the Behavior Bets betting model, give bettors the projected lowest risk of turning a profit. I added one more to account for the real possibility of a Bengals win.
- Chiefs 1-6 points +330
- Chiefs 7-12 points +550
- Bengals 1-6 points +285
Note that even the books have one of these teams winning by less than a touchdown as the two most likely outcomes. Now, there are two ways to attack these Chiefs vs. Bengals betting strategies to walk away with a profit.
Either allocate your bets proportionally and walk away with a fixed profit, or bet an equal amount on all three and walk away with a profit based on the lowest of the odds that hit.
Allocate Your Bets Proportionately
With the first Chiefs vs. Bengals strategy, let’s say you had $300 to wager. You would want to do the following:
- $119.45 on Chiefs by 1-6
- $107.97 on Bengals 1-6
- $71.43 on Chiefs 7-12
That would yield $464.29 if any of those three outcomes occur, and you’re taking home a net profit of $164.29. You would be rooting for the Chiefs to win by fewer than 13 points or the Bengals to win by fewer than six points, as has been the case in each of Cinci’s last three games against the Chiefs.
Allocate Your Wagers Equally
With the second strategy, again assuming you have $300, you would bet $100 equally across the three outcomes. If the lowest odds hit (Bengals 1-6 +285), you would win $385 with an $85 profit. If the highest odds came in (Chiefs 7-12), you would win $650 with a $350 profit.
- $100.00 on Chiefs by 1-6 to profit $130.00
- $100.00 on Bengals 1-6 to profit $85.00
- $100.00 on Chiefs 7-12 to profit $350.00
MORE: NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
With this strategy, you lower your profit if it’s a close win for the Bengals, but up your profit substantially if the Chiefs win decisively but by fewer than 13 points. This is not risk-free, but it is low-risk when applying these Chiefs vs. Bengals betting strategies — especially when aided by a model like the Behavior Bets model.
