It’s been tough sledding for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025. After being a dominant force in the NFL with quarterback Patrick Mahomes under center, the team has finally hit a wall with a 5-5 record coming into Week 12.
They took the red-hot Indianapolis Colts to the wire, tying the game with a field goal at the end of regulation, and after stopping Indianapolis on the opening drive of overtime, the Mahomes and Kansas City drove down the field to kick the game-winning field goal. How does the win affect their playoff chances?
Can the Kansas City Chiefs Still Make the 2025 Postseason?
Kansas City secured a big overtime win on the foot of kicker Harrison Butker in an effort to preserve their 10-year playoff streak. According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, heading into the matchup with the Colts, the Chiefs had a 38% chance to make the playoffs.
The win, which was also the Chiefs’ first one-score game of the season, moves them to 6-5, as their chances of making the postseason rise to 49.1%, up by 11.1 percentage points. The win helps Kansas City stop what many fans were starting to expect: an NFL postseason without Mahomes and the Chiefs for the first time in seven years.
BUTKER SEALS THE DEAL. CHIEFS WIN.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 23, 2025
Unfortunately, the win does not significantly impact Kansas City’s chances of maintaining its streak of nine straight AFC West division titles, as the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will not play until Week 13, as they are on their bye weeks.
Heading into Week 12, Kansas City had a 2.9% chance of winning the AFC West. The victory over the Colts increases the chance by 2.1 percentage points to 5%. Still quite a long shot, but the percentage rises.
The Chiefs’ chances of winning the division rely on losses from the Chargers, who sit one game ahead of Kansas City at 7-4, and the Broncos, who continue to exceed expectations at 9-2 in 2025. Interestingly enough, Kansas City appears to be the better overall team, boasting a better point differential than both of its AFC West foes ahead of it at +76.
With home games remaining against both squads, Kansas City will need to win those matchups to even the season series after losing to Denver in Week 11 and to Los Angeles in Week 1. While the win over the Chargers can push them into second place, Kansas City will need some help from other teams to reclaim the top of the division from Denver.
