With three losses in their last four games and an offense that has been held under 20 points in three of their last four games, the Kansas City Chiefs‘ season appears to be unraveling. Can they get back on track against the New England Patriots? Let’s break down this matchup.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Chiefs -8
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-410), Patriots (+320)
- Over/Under: 37.5
- Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- Channel: FOX
Chiefs vs. Patriots Prediction
Is it time to hit the panic button in Kansas City?
The Chiefs’ once explosive offense has been a shell of its former self. Over its last six games, in which it is just 2-4, Kansas City is averaging only 19.0 PPG and 320.0 total YPG. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone from 6-1 to 8-5 in less than two months.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has gone six straight games without a 300-yard passing game, the longest drought of his career. His passer rating (93.3) and his passing yards per game average (261.4) are both on pace to be the lowest since he became the Chiefs’ starter back in 2018.
Travis Kelce remains the go-to guy for Mahomes. With 896 receiving yards, Kelce is approaching his eighth straight 1,000-yard season. But including the playoffs, Kelce has not had a 100-yard receiving game in seven career games vs. the Patriots.
While the Chiefs’ offense has struggled, their defense has been one of the league’s best. In fact, in terms of points and total yards, Kansas City’s defense actually ranks higher in the league rankings than its offense.
The Patriots should have a tough time scoring in this game. They are last in the NFL in scoring at 13.0 PPG, while the Chiefs’ defense allows the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5 PPG.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
New England quarterback Bailey Zappe is coming off an excellent game against the Steelers, with three touchdown passes and a passer rating of 115.2. But it’s difficult to see this Patriots team coming up with two decent offensive efforts in a row.
Not to be lost in all of this is a Patriots’ defense that has held four straight opponents under 20 points.
In injury news, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco remains out following shoulder surgery. Offensive tackle Donovan Smith (neck) is also out.
For the Patriots, running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the biggest name out for this game. Stevenson has a high ankle sprain, putting Ezekiel Elliott back in the lead role at running back.
The Chiefs tend to do well against the spread following a loss, sporting a 3-1 record vs. the spread in games following a straight-up loss this season (5-2 ATS in this spot over the last two years).
New England, meanwhile, is 3-10 vs. the spread this season and 1-8 against the spread vs. non-divisional opponents.
So, at some point, the Chiefs are going to figure everything out, right? Or have opponents discovered a formula to defeat them? While they may solve things before the playoffs come around, I don’t think the Patriots’ defense will let that happen this week.
On the other hand, I refuse to put my trust in a team whose only win since Halloween was a victory over the Steelers. So, for me, the play in this game is under.
It’s a low number, yes, but KC’s offense hasn’t been clicking lately, and the Patriots’ offense hasn’t clicked all season. So, I’ll take a chance on a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Under 37.5 points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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