Chiefs vs. Packers Predictions and Expert Picks Against the Spread: Patrick Mahomes or Jordan Love as a Home Underdog?

Should you lay the points with Patrick Mahomes as a road favorite? Check out our Chiefs vs. Packers predictions, with picks, player prop bets, and more.

It’s the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, which features one team competing for the top seed in the AFC and another that’s firmly in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the NFC.

After starting 2-5, the Packers have won three of their last four games, including a big upset over Detroit on Thanksgiving. But can they pull off the upset against Patrick Mahomes tonight? Before we dive into the Chiefs vs. Packers predictions, let’s take a look at the Chiefs vs. Packers betting odds.

Chiefs vs. Packers Betting Lines

Kansas City was originally a seven-point favorite when the Chiefs vs. Packers odds first opened, but the spread has now dropped to six. Even with the trend of low-scoring prime-time games this season, the total has gone up from its original line of 41 points as well.

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Spread
    Chiefs -6
  • Moneyline
    Chiefs -260, Packers +215
  • Total
    42.5

Chiefs vs. Packers Predictions

Bearman: As predicted in this column last week, all the Chiefs offense needed was a date with the Las Vegas Raiders to get back on track. Believe it or not, that was only the second game since September in which the Chiefs cracked 30 points. With the Chiefs offense maybe being back and the Packers offense starting to gel under Jordan Love, I am going with a rare over here as I was surprised that it was low 40s.

Pick: Over 42.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Blewis: The Chiefs had their get-right game last week against the Raiders, who they beat 31-17 after being down 14-0 to start the game. But this could be a trap game for the Chiefs on the road as they look ahead to their matchup next week against the Bills.

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During the Packers’ two-game winning streak, their offense has scored 52 points and generated 774 yards of offense. Most notably, Love has shown a lot of improvement recently and is beginning to look like the Packers’ franchise quarterback.

But their last two games have come against the Chargers and Lions, two considerably worse defenses than the one they’ll be facing tonight. This Chiefs defense, in particular, is strong against this pass, allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game and ranking top-three in both EPA/play and success rate.

Let’s also not forget the success of prime-time unders this season, specifically on Sunday and Monday nights — 23-3 combined for the season. This is also a great live bet if the Chiefs put up a lot of points in the first half, considering they’re 31st in second-half scoring this season.

The under is my favorite play for this game, but I also like the Packers to cover as long as the spread is at six or above.

Pick: Under 42.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Soppe: Jaire Alexander (shoulder) has a chance to come back, but there’s no denying that, at best, he’s at less than full strength, and that has to be factored in when evaluating the Chiefs passing game. In the three games he has missed, opposing WR1s are averaging 85.3 yards per game and have seen 31% of the targets.

Now, some of that is a product of playing a pair of elite receivers in that sample (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen), but the point remains that they’ve struggled to slow down the opponent from throwing to their ace receiver, and it appeared in Week 12 that Rashee Rice finally earned that label.

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The Packers own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT this season. Good! Here are the top five receivers in YAC yards per reception this season (minimum 30 receptions)

  1. Rashee Rice: 8.2
  2. Deebo Samuel: 7.5
  3. Demario Douglas: 7.3
  4. Nico Collins: 7.0
  5. DJ Moore: 6.3

Mahomes has played four games this season against a team with a bottom-five opponent aDOT — 5.62 aDOT (23.8% lower than his rate in all other games this season). The puzzle pieces are starting to align.

Picks: Rashee Rice to score a touchdown (+200 at DraftKings), over 47.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: Isn’t it a bit curious that after Christian Watson breaks out for 94 yards, his yardage line is still just 45.5? Perhaps it’s because the books aren’t buying it … and neither am I.

Prior to last week, Watson had just one other game with so much as more than 37 receiving yards. He thrived last week against a collapsing Lions pass defense.

Now, he gets a Chiefs defense allowing the eighth-fewest yards to wide receivers. L’Jarius Sneed has been locking down opposing outside receivers who are far more talented than Watson. Look for Watson to go back to his regularly scheduled programming this week.

Pick: Christian Watson under 45.5 receiving yards (-114 at BetRivers)

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