Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season brings us a Super Bowl 58 rematch as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif. Both teams come into this game well-rested, with the Chiefs having had a bye in Week 6 and the 49ers having played on “Thursday Night Football” against the Seattle Seahawks.
Kansas City won the last meeting between the two in the Super Bowl but needed overtime to do so. The sportsbooks clearly project this to be a close game, with the line opening with the Chiefs as narrow favorites before swinging in favor of the 49ers. However, neither side has been more than a three-point favorite this week, indicating just how in-balance this game could be.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
49ers -1.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs (+102); 49ers (-122) - Over/Under
47 total points - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, Oct. 20 - Location
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Preview and Prediction
In our PFN Insights Power Rankings+ (PR+), we see these two sides as fairly even, with the Chiefs sitting fourth and the 49ers sixth. The Chiefs’ PR+ score is 64.7, while the 49ers’ is 58.9. There is not much difference between the two, and when you plot them on a chart using just PFN’s Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, they both sit in the same tier.
Every NFL team broken down into tiers based on offensive and defensive performance heading into Week 7 📊 pic.twitter.com/D4SUPbhhmg
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
In terms of offense, the 49ers have the edge so far in our Offense+, ranking second, while the Chiefs are seventh. Much like with the PR+, there is not much separation, but the 49ers’ offense does sit in a higher tier after six weeks. The Chiefs are the better team running the ball, but the 49ers have superior numbers at passing the ball.
Both teams excel at avoiding getting into third-down situations and are good at converting on third downs. Interestingly, both offenses have struggled in the red zone, with the 49ers scoring touchdowns on just 44.4% of their trips and the Chiefs down at 38.9%. Both teams actually rank in the bottom 10 in that statistic this year.
Defensively, the Chiefs have the advantage, ranking seventh in our Defense+, while the 49ers are 14th. Once again, there is a tier separating them, but the differences between the two sides are relatively small overall. The 49ers are also trending up a little defensively, while the Chiefs are trending down a touch.
Both defenses have been pretty average this year, according to their metrics. One area they are both good at is getting pressure without blitzing, with the 49ers sitting fourth and the Chiefs ranking seventh. That could be a key area of the game because the Chiefs’ offense ranks worse in terms of allowing pressure against four or fewer rushes. They are still league-average, but facing a top-five defense in that area could test them.
Comparing quarterbacks head-to-head can feel odd because they are never actually on the field at the same time, but one area we can directly compare here is their composure and ability to make plays under pressure.
QBs who have thrown the ball well under pressure heading into NFL Week 6 🎯 pic.twitter.com/FYGhJ6hoMA
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
Purdy has a slight advantage there, but it is very minimal. However, his offensive line is better at resisting those non-blitz pressures, and as he also ranks better than Mahomes from a clean pocket, that could prove to be important in a matchup where both quarterbacks figure to be important. Purdy also has an edge over Mahomes in net yards per attempt, third-down conversion rate, and in clutch situations.
Since the start of 2023, our QB+ metric has Purdy as the better-performing quarterback, ranking in the top two, with Mahomes just outside the top 10.
However, this game is much bigger than those two men, no matter how important the quarterback position is. Injuries could be extremely telling. The 49ers have had 15 players on the injury report this week, including Deebo Samuel Sr. (wrist) and Jordan Mason (shoulder), both of their two first-choice kickers (Jake Moody, ankle; Matthew Wright, shoulder/back).
In contrast, the Chiefs have a relatively clean bill of health. They had five players on the injury report this week, with only Michael Danna (pectoral) being ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster listed as questionable but expected to play.
The kicking situation is a real concern for the 49ers. Moody was hitting kicks at a 92.9% rate before he got hurt in Week 5. Wright then stepped up and made all six of his kicks in Week 6 before getting hurt near the end of the game. That means it will be Anders Carlson kicking for the 49ers this week. He made 81.8% of his 33 field-goal attempts in his rookie season with Green Bay and 87.2% of his 39 extra-point attempts.
In a game that very well could come down to a kick to decide the game, having a kicker who is making around 85% of his kicks across both categories in the spotlight for his first game in 2024 is an issue. The slight positive for the 49ers is that Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has looked mortal, missing three kicks in the past three weeks, with two coming from over 50 yards.
The kicking game is so important in a close matchup. Whether it be an extra point or a long-distance field goal, leaving those points on the field can be extremely costly.
When two teams are this evenly matched, it comes down to the little things. The 49ers have the edge in terms of the trenches, and their quarterback is playing better between the two in the first six weeks and dating back to the start of last year. However, they have major injury concerns, and the kicking game is a real issue in a game that is projected to be decided by less than three points.
In all my projections, the results split fairly evenly down the middle, which makes this a tough game to play. Early in the week, when the Chiefs were favored, I teased the 49ers up to +7, and when that swung the other way, I took the Chiefs at +7 in a different teaser. That sums up how I see this game going. It should be incredibly tight.
The total is also pretty close to spot-on. With two good offenses, who combine for an average of 50 points per game, you would think the over is in play. However, the two defenses are very good as well and have allowed an average of just 39 points per game through the first six weeks.
With neither the spread nor the total in play for me, there is one other angle that is intriguing. The 49ers are a very good first-half team in 2024. In the first half this year, they rank fourth in net EPA, fifth in points scored per game, and seventh in points allowed per game. In contrast, the Chiefs rank 13th in net EPA, 15th in points scored per game, and 16th in points allowed per game.
That flips on its head in the second half. The Chiefs have the best net EPA this season in the second half, as well as rank 14th in points scored per game and first in points allowed per game. In those same categories, the 49ers are 19th, 17th, and 29th, respectively. We have seen the 49ers throw away leads in the fourth quarter in two games this year.
Therefore, the angle I am looking at playing here is the 49ers to lead at the half and the Chiefs to come back and win the game. You can get odds of +700 on that happening, and the data tells you it is very much a possibility. That is the play that takes into account the balance of these two sides and their tendencies this year.
A final option is to bet on either team to win the game by 1-6 points. You can get them both at odds around +320, so there is the potential to play both sides and profit from a close game. All three of the 49ers losses have been by six points or less. The Chiefs have won two games by five or fewer points and another two by just seven points. Playing both sides of the coin, there is another intriguing option.
Picks:
- 49ers halftime lead and Chiefs win the game (+700 at DraftKings)
- 49ers winning margin of 1-6 points (+320 at Bet365)
- Chiefs winning margin of 1-6 points (+333 at Bet365)
All stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
