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    Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions: 5 Stats To Note Ahead of Week 3

    Heading into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, here's a preview of the Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 3 matchup.

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    The Chicago Bears hit the road again this week, making their second road appearance through three games.

    Last week was a humbling loss for Chicago in prime time. This week, however, they take on the winless Indianapolis Colts as the Bears look to jump back into the win column on Sunday afternoon.

    Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Preview

    Through two games this season, the Bears haven’t put much positive offensive tape out there. However, with a defense that pays homage to the 2018 Vic Fangio Bears, hope has far but run dry in the Windy City.

    The Colts haven’t had the strongest start to their season, kicking off 2024 with an 0-2 record. Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, while impressive in highlight plays, hasn’t made the leap many were expecting him to make this season.

    However, with both teams struggling offensively, this game could come down to which defense is more porous on Sunday. The winner of that battle will likely be on the winner’s podium following four quarters of play.

    5 Bears-Colts Stats From TruMedia

    Stat: Twice this season a team has failed to reach 3.2 yards per play — the Bears in Week 2 at the Houston Texans (3.1) and the Bears in Week 1 versus the Tennessee Titans (2.8).

    Analysis: This season has been humbling for a Bears offense that was being reigned as one of the best units in the league before the season even started.

    There was a lot of hype built around Caleb Williams and his arsenal of weapons, but through two games this year, the weapons haven’t been as dangerous as some expected.

    As this season continues, adjustments need to be made; otherwise, the Bears could be a historically inefficient offense in the 2024 season.

    Not only is this offense historically bad through the 2024 season, but throughout modern NFL history, this Bears’ unit comes in as one of the worst. Since 2000, only the 2002 Texans (2.7) and 2006 Oakland Raiders (2.7) have averaged fewer yards per play through two games than this year’s Bears (3.0).

    Stat: The Colts play more zone defense (83.2%) than anyone and, since 2015, that is where rookie QBs have had success.

    Analysis: The Bears’ rookie quarterback hasn’t had an easy transition into the NFL from college. While he wears some of the blame, it’s an overall disconnect on the offense as a whole.

    Between seeing pressure on nearly every play due to poor offensive line play or the lack of chemistry built between receivers on the team, there hasn’t been an overwhelming amount of positives coming from Chicago’s offense this season.

    However, that could change this Sunday, as they face a Colts defense that plays the most zone defense in the NFL. And rookie quarterbacks have statistically performed better against zone than man.

    Rookie QBs vs. man coverage: 53.9% complete, 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA)
    Rookie QBs vs. zone coverage: 67.2% complete, 7.1 YPA

    With Williams in need of a pick-me-up performance to get his rookie season trending more positively, the Colts’ defensive approach could lead the Bears to their most productive day through the air.

    Stat: Richardson has been blitzed on seven dropbacks this season — he’s 0-6 with two interceptions on those plays.

    Analysis: The Bears are familiar with their quarterback having a lack of success due to blitzes. In Week 3, Chicago can be the team dishing out frustration, as Richardson has shown to struggle against the blitz.

    Last week against the Texans, Chicago’s offensive line got Williams crunched on a majority of plays, and as they face a quarterback who’s struggled thus far against the blitz, defensive head coach Matt Eberflus will likely be installing plenty of pressure packages into his gameplan.

    Considering how strong the secondary has played this season, Chicago’s pass rush must get home early against Richardson, as the numbers for him against the blitz haven’t been too pretty.

    And with the Bears looking to secure a road win before their three-game homestand.

    Stat: The Colts have been one of the worst rush defenses in the league this year (473 rushing yards allowed), while Chicago’s offense is among the worst rushing offenses through two weeks (155 rushing yards).

    Analysis: As the Bears look to find their offensive identity, the Colts nearly force Chicago’s hand on how to attack them this week.

    The Colts have allowed 473 yards on the ground through two games, allowing an average of 236.5 rushing yards per game. Chicago, on the other hand, has rushed for just 155 yards this season, averaging 77.5 rushing yards per game.

    With Indianapolis playing a lot of zone coverage, being porous against the rush, and missing star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, Eberflus’ offensive plan heading into this game is simple: Run. The. Ball.

    Now, it might be easier said than done, as running back D’Andre Swift has struggled this season (48 rushing yards). However, with the Colts being one of the worst rushing defenses in the league with Buckner in, it’s likely to expect them to be even worse without him in.

    Whether or not it happens, that comes down to execution, game plan, and ability to adjust on the fly. If the Bears can do that, they should be heading into Week 4 with momentum.

    Bears vs. Colts Predictions

    David Bearman (19-13): Colts
    Adam Beasley (20-12): Colts
    Brian Blewis (16-16): Bears
    Tony Catalina (21-11): Colts
    Anthony DiBona (17-15): Bears
    Mike Gambardella (20-12): Colts
    Jay Morrison (20-12): Colts
    Dakota Randall (21-11): Bears
    Dallas Robinson (17-15): Colts
    Ben Rolfe (17-15): Bears
    Kyle Soppe 19-13): Bears
    Dan Tomaro (20-12): Colts
    Mike Wobschall (19-13): Colts
    Dakota Zientek (18-14): Bears