Every year, the NFL Draft injects a ton of new talent into the league. Naturally, this shakes up fantasy football values. With the Chicago Bears surprisingly making Colston Loveland the first tight end off the board, what does this mean for the fantasy values of Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and others?
Fantasy Impact of Bears Drafting Colston Loveland
The Bears continue to invest a lot of draft capital in offensive weapons. Last year, they drafted Williams and Odunze. This year, they once again used a first-round pick on an offensive skill player, selecting Loveland.
Tyler Warren was a heavy favorite to be the first tight end off the board, but Loveland sure looks like the more talented player. With TE1 draft capital, that status is solidified.
The problem for Loveland is that despite his abilities, this is a crowded offense. Keenan Allen is unlikely to be back, but between Moore, Odunze, and either D’Andre Swift or a rookie running back, that is asking a lot from a quarterback who struggled mightily as a rookie. I doubt I will be able to get Loveland into the top 12 redraft tight ends.
Caleb Williams
Whether Williams ends up being the guy he was drafted to be hinges on his own progression. He stepped into the greatest situation for a rookie first-round QB in NFL history last year and was barely a QB2, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. Williams’ rookie season earned him a D+ grade in PFSN’s QB+ metric.
Nevertheless, more weapons who are actually talented are, of course, a good thing. Loveland could be Williams’ Sam LaPorta, which would only serve to help raise Williams’ ceiling. New head coach Ben Johnson certainly knows how to use an athletic pass-catching tight end. There is a world where Williams emerges as an every-week QB1.
DJ Moore
This one will be short and sweet. Moore remained the clear alpha last season despite the additions of Odunze and Allen. He commanded a 26.6% target share and averaged a solid 14.0 fantasy points per game. Moore is still the WR1, and swapping in a rookie TE for Allen is not about to negatively impact Moore’s fantasy value.
Rome Odunze
Odunze’s situation is similar to the extent that Loveland is not going to be a problem for the sophomore fantasy value. Whether Odunze is a startable fantasy asset will come down to whether he gets better at football and earns his targets.
He only earned a 19.2% target share last season, and Odunze was targeted on a paltry 18.3% of his routes run, averaging a horrific 1.33 yards per route run. If he cannot improve, then perhaps Williams will look to Loveland more than Odunze.
Cole Kmet
There is a silver lining here. Perhaps by drafting Loveland, the Bears are gearing up to trade Cole Kmet. That’s the only hope the veteran tight end has of having any semblance of fantasy value.
Kmet averaged 7.1 ppg last season despite playing 87.2% of the snaps, the third-most in the league. He only earned a 10.4% target share and saw a target on 13% of his routes run. Both of those numbers ranked outside the top 30. If he stays in Chicago, he will take a backseat to Loveland and has absolutely no business being drafted in any redraft league of any size.