The Los Angeles Chargers may have looked inconsistent at times this season, but back-to-back wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys secured them a spot in the 2025 NFL Playoffs.
Now the question is whether Los Angeles will enter the postseason as a Wild Card team or pull off a late surge to claim the AFC West crown. Here’s a closer look at the Chargers’ playoff outlook under Jim Harbaugh and what needs to happen over the final two weeks.
What Are the Chargers’ AFC West Chances?
Entering Week 17, the Chargers sat second in the AFC West at 11–4, trailing the Denver Broncos, who improved to 13–3 after defeating the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
However, they suffered a loss in Week 17 to the Houston Texans and can no longer win the division.
Before their loss to the Texans, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, Los Angeles had a 19.6% chance of winning the AFC West, while Denver remained the heavy favorite at 80.4%.
A win for the Chargers against the Texans would have kept the race alive and set up a winner-take-all showdown between the Chargers and Broncos in Week 18.
2 for 2 for Barnett!
đź“ş : @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/ErWI0A3n9E
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 27, 2025
The Chargers already held a crucial head-to-head win over Denver. Regardless of the division title being out of their reach, Los Angeles will still play to win in Week 18 to secure a higher seed.
Chargers’ Seeding Scenarios
Before Week 17, Los Angeles was still technically alive in the race for the AFC’s top seed, though it would require several results breaking their way. The Chargers would have needed to win both remaining games to finish 13–4 and also have both the Jaguars and Patriots lose at least one of their final two contests.
In that scenario, the Chargers, Patriots, and Broncos would have all finished 13–4, while the Jaguars would fall to 12–5. Los Angeles would then have claimed the No. 1 seed based on a superior conference record, winning the tiebreaker over both New England and Denver.
Securing the top seed would have given the Chargers a bye in the Wild Card Round and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, including the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they’ll now be playing in the Wild Card Round on the road.
According to PFSN Analytics, the Chargers have a 57% chance to finish as the seventh seed in the AFC, and a 29.60% chance to finish the season as the sixth seed.
Regardless of seeding, the Chargers have positioned themselves as one of the top teams entering the postseason, and if they can close strong, a favorable matchup will be very helpful.
