The Los Angeles Chargers snuck by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15 and defeated the Dallas Cowboys the following week. They are now firmly in the hunt for NFL Playoff real estate. But will they make it as a Wild Card team, or as the potential AFC West champions?
Let’s take a closer look at the Chargers’ chances of making the NFL Playoffs under Jim Harbaugh in 2025, and what needs to happen for them to cut.
What Are the Los Angeles Chargers’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the AFC West?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, following their win in Week 16, the Chargers have a 16.60% chance of winning the AFC West. Los Angeles clinched a playoff berth when the Colts lost to the 49ers on Monday night.
The Chargers are currently situated in second place in the AFC West. With a record of 11-4, they sit behind the Denver Broncos, who are at 12-2. If the playoffs started today, the Chargers would have faced the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round.
The Chargers could win the division with either a 12-5 or 13-4 record, but in the 12-5 scenario, the Broncos would have to lose all their remaining games. In either outcome, Los Angeles must beat Denver in the season finale.
The Chargers already have a head-to-head win over the Broncos, so a sweep would secure their head-to-head tiebreaker, if they can close the gap and attain the same record over the final three weeks. Part of that path is dependent on the Broncos dropping at least one of their two games ahead of the finale.
In Week 16, the Broncos host the Jacksonville Jaguars, who currently hold the lead in the AFC South. Then in Week 17, the Broncos go on the road to face a Kansas City Chiefs squad reeling from the loss of Patrick Mahomes. The PFSN NFL FPM gives Denver a 54.4% chance of beating Jacksonville and a 66.9% chance of beating Kansas City.
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If the Chargers lose in Week 17 before the rematch with Denver, they would then need the Broncos to lose out over those two weeks even to have a shot at the AFC West title. And coming out on top against Denver has been a tall ask for teams, particularly down the stretch.
There is no scenario where the AFC West is decided by anything beyond the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Chargers win their two non-divisional games while the Broncos lose their two non-divisional games, the two teams will meet at 12-4 in a “winner take all” finale showdown. But in that scenario, both would be in the NFL Playoffs either way.
Chargers’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
Los Angeles’ remaining schedule presents its fair share of challenges. The Chargers play the surging Texans in Week 17, and close out the year against their division-leading rivals in Denver.
- Week 17: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos
The PFSN FPM gives the Chargers a 42.7% chance of winning against Houston, and just a 38.9% chance of earning a win on the road against the Broncos in Week 18.
If the PFSN FPM’s percentages hold, the Chargers would finish the year with a record of 11-6.
