The college football season has delivered early drama with surprising upsets across the landscape, creating the perfect backdrop for Tulane’s statement opportunity. The undefeated Green Wave face a formidable challenge against No. 13 Ole Miss, a program that, despite its ranking, shows vulnerability that Tulane could exploit.
Saturday’s matchup in Oxford carries significant postseason implications for both teams, and our Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction features the PFSN grades that could define the result, a detailed breakdown, historical head-to-head, and the final score projection for this must-watch matchup.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Game Details
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 20th, 2025
- Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
- Weather: 92°F, Partly Cloudy, 4 MPH Winds
- How To Watch: ESPN
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Head-to-Head Record
Despite the current Power Four versus Group of Five dynamic, Ole Miss and Tulane share a remarkably deep football history spanning over 130 years. The rivalry dates back to 1893, making it Ole Miss’ oldest continuous rivalry and Tulane’s second-oldest, with 73 total meetings between the schools.
Ole Miss holds a commanding 45-28 advantage in the all-time series and enters Saturday’s contest riding a 13-game winning streak against the Green Wave. Their most recent encounter on September 9, 2023, saw the Rebels rally for a 37-20 victory in New Orleans.
The frequency of meetings has diminished significantly since 2000, with only five matchups compared to the regular annual clashes they enjoyed throughout the 20th century when both programs shared conference affiliations in the SIAA, Southern Conference, and as charter SEC members from 1932-1966.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss PFSN Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Ole Miss (86.4, B)
- Tulane (75.4, C)
PFSN College DEFi
- Ole Miss (80.9, B-)
- Tulane (75.0, C)
PFSN College OLi
- Ole Miss (82.3, B-)
- Tulane (68.4, D+)
PFSN College QBi
- Austin Simmons, Ole Miss (77.2, C+)
- Jake Retzlaff, Tulane (80.5, B-)
PFSN College RBi
- Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (80.9, B-)
- *No players qualify*
PFSN College WRi
- Harrison Wallace III, Ole Miss (86.4, B)
- Omari Hayes, Tulane (80.9, B-)
PFSN College TEi
- Dae’Quan Wright, Ole Miss (83.0, B)
- Johnny Pascuzzi, Tulane (75.0, C)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Kam Franklin, Ole Miss (81.1, B-)
- Harvey Dyson, Tulane (73.3, C)
PFSN College DTi
- Zxavian Harris, Ole Miss (87.1, B+)
- Santana Hopper, Tulane (88.7, B+)
PFSN College LBi
- Tahj Chambers, Ole Miss (65.8, D)
- Dickson Agu, Tulane (66.5, D)
PFSN College CBi
- Ricky Fletcher, Ole Miss (83.2, B)
- Jaheim Johnson, Tulane (80.1, B-)
PFSN College SAFi
- Wydett Williams Jr., Ole Miss (89.8, B+)
- Javion White, Tulane (86.0, B)
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction
There is no denying what Tulane football has been able to accomplish in recent years. Dating back to 2002, Tulane has gone below .500 in 15 of 19 seasons. According to TruMedia, they are 35-10 since 2022, which is good for the seventh-best win percentage in all of FBS during that span. Their 32.3 points per game over that time is also ranked 30th.
This program is also in a great spot, recruiting-wise. According to Tulane Football News on X/Twitter, Tulane’s 2026 recruiting class is the first class to ever rank in the top 60. The good news is that there is still a lot of recruiting left to do, giving these guys a chance to improve on their 59th-place finish.
Unfortunately for Tulane, even an Ole Miss team that has (somewhat) struggled this season is the best team they will have played in either 2024 or 2025. In 2024, their best two opponents were a 6-7 Oklahoma and a 9-4 Kansas State, both of which dropped 34 on the Green Wave en route to a victory. This season, Tulane’s best opponent has been Duke, whom they managed to beat 34-27.
After a very hot start to the game, Tulane gave up 11 points in the fourth quarter and almost blew the lead, but luckily hung on to remain undefeated on the season. Duke ranks 11th this season in passing attempts per game, while Ole Miss ranks 62nd. This suggests Tulane should be prepared to see a high volume of passes coming from the Rebels. I wouldn’t count on Tulane’s 75.0 Defi impact score to be able to stop this Rebel attack.
Tulane’s defense is far from bad, ranking 52nd in defensive passing EPA (expected points added), but even Duke’s passing offense isn’t quite the level of Ole Miss, ranking 43rd while Ole Miss ranks 22nd. If there was an advantage to be had defensively, it would have to be the untimely interceptions from Austin Simmons.
Simmons has thrown four interceptions this year, and the Rebels rank 131st in EPA lost due to these interceptions. Tulane’s defense, on the other hand, ranks 26th in defensive EPA gained from the opposing team’s interceptions.
Ole Miss is far from good on defense, ranking third-worst in FBS in rushing EPA allowed. The Green Wave aren’t the greatest in the world from a rushing perspective, but were able to take advantage when needed due to quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who totaled 96 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns! They weren’t just tush pushes either: Retzlaff scored on six, 11, 19, and 20-yard runs.
This is where Tulane’s biggest advantage could come into play. The Rebels rank 134th in EPA allowed and 126th in rushing yards allowed per game on quarterback runs. It doesn’t matter which way you slice it, either. They rank 118th against designed runs and 126th when looking at just scrambles and sacks.
The question of this game will be whether or not Retzlaff’s legs can keep Tulane within striking distance and whether Simmons shows up strong in his first game back from injury or comes out flat. For a game that the public perceives as a multiple-score game, I think it could end up a lot closer than most realize.
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Tulane 38
