As the 2025 college football season approaches, head coach James Franklin and the Penn State Nittany Lions are once again riding a tidal wave of hype. Ranked No. 2 in at least one preseason poll and boasting a roster brimming with NFL talent, Penn State looks like a national title contender, on paper.
But ESPN analysts are sounding a familiar alarm: can Franklin finally win the big games?
James Franklin’s Track Record Against Top Teams Raises Red Flags
Despite Franklin’s impressive overall record, 125-57 as a head coach and over 100 wins at Penn State, his performance against elite opponents continues to cast doubt on the program’s championship aspirations. Since taking over in Happy Valley in 2014, Franklin has gone just 1-15 against Top 5 opponents, a stat ESPN’s analysts didn’t shy away from during a recent discussion.
“They haven’t beaten anybody,” one analyst said bluntly. “We’re now asking a team that’s been unable to win the big one to suddenly win three or four major games in one season?”
That criticism hits hard when paired with Penn State’s past. The Nittany Lions haven’t won a national championship since 1986 and haven’t captured a Big Ten title since 2016. Even that 2016 squad, despite winning the conference, was left out of the College Football Playoff due to early-season stumbles.
Stacked Roster, Same Old Concerns?
Analysts agree that this year’s team has the makings of a juggernaut. Franklin returns a deep, experienced squad that mirrors past Big Ten champions like Michigan in 2022 and Ohio State in 2023. With over 20 potential NFL-caliber players and top-tier talent on both sides of the ball, the potential is sky-high.
Still, potential doesn’t always translate to playoff berths. The ESPN panel compared Penn State to teams that looked dominant on paper but faltered in crucial moments.
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“Franklin says it’s fair criticism,” the analyst added. “He knows 95% of programs would love to be where Penn State is. But right now, they’re trying to be in the 1%. That means winning the games that matter most.”
Predictable Pattern or Breakthrough Season?
The forecast for Penn State’s 2025 campaign includes a critical late-season showdown at Ohio State in November. While the analyst predicted a loss there, he also projected the Nittany Lions would bounce back, reach the Big Ten Championship, and possibly avenge that defeat to the Buckeyes.
Such a scenario would be a defining moment for Franklin, who has led the team to five New Year’s Six bowl appearances and a school-record graduation rate, but still struggles to shake the “can’t win the big one” label.
Skepticism will remain until Penn State proves it can conquer Ohio State and Michigan when it matters most. The Nittany Lions may have the talent to contend, but under Franklin, they still have everything to prove.
